Colombia has to decide between two country models –which border on populism– to which one it will hand over the head of state in the second round. June 19 will be the next appointment to the polls and Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, two former mayors who capitalized on the anti-establishment discourse with easily viralizable proposals, but –according to the experts– with a high degree of doubt about how they should be executed, obtained a quota for it. .
According to the precount of the Registry, 21.4 million citizens went out to vote and the majority was divided between Gustavo Petro (8.5 million), Rodolfo Hernández (5.9 million), Federico Gutiérrez (5 million) and Sergio Fajardo (888,518), who reached the threshold.
The former mayor of Bogotá was the one who achieved majorities in 17 departments –and in the capital–, while the former president of Bucaramanga was left with 14 departments. And Gutiérrez won in Antioquia and in consulates.
As for the electoral flow, the first round left Hernández strengthened, since he managed to come back in the final stretch and already added the support of Gutiérrez and his 5 million votes to defeat Petro.
And the latter has two views: in 2018, in the first round, it had 4.8 million votes; now, in 2022, it reached 8.5 million. But this figure is similar to the one he got in second 4 years ago, so there could be a ceiling that, according to surveys, reaches 40 percent (which he achieved this Sunday).
The challenge for both is to add, but it seems that it will be easier for the engineer than for the repeating candidate.
Petro will have the challenge of overcoming his ceiling
Gustavo Petro, and his vice-presidential formula Francia Márquez, received majority support at the polls this Sunday, reaching 8.5 million votes and demonstrating that they have the ability to summon majorities when facing a wide range of opponents. However, the bet of the former mayor of Bogotá to win in the first round was not achieved and he was unable to overcome the electoral ceiling that he had in the 2018 presidential elections.
After achieving majorities in the first, the candidate of the left-wing coalition Historical Pact will now have to focus on the challenge of how to increase his electoral flow and summon political sectors that have been elusive, and unlike four years ago he will not face a candidate who carries the flags of a political party, such as Iván Duque, but one who presented himself for signatures and has already begun to gain support.
Aware of this situation, Petro this same Sunday reinforced his speech against Hernández, despite the fact that last February he asked him to consider the possibility of forming an alliance. In the speech after the victory, the former mayor of Bogotá took the opportunity to throw digs at his new opponent and assured that he would face a corrupt and sexist.
“We do not want a society in which women stay in the kitchen,” he said, recalling the recent radio interview in which Hernández said that he preferred that his wife, Socorro Oliveros, not get involved in government affairs if he comes to the House. from Narino. In addition, he did not overlook his wide influence on social networks. “Corruption is not fought on Tiktok. We have risked our lives to fight against a corrupt regime”, he pointed out.
From now on, Petro will try to retain the full support of alternative parties such as the Green Alliance and Dignity, and has on his side the mayors of Bogotá, Medellín and Cali, whose mayors have let different officials go to reinforce your face-to-face campaign.
However, he knows that the businessmen might not support him and could go against him because of his initiative so that the 4,000 richest people pay more taxes to finance their social programs, the cost of which would amount to 135 billion pesos. “What I propose to the business community is social justice and economic stability,” Petro explained.
Hernández already has “Fico” and more are coming
Candidate Rodolfo Hernández, who presented himself with signatures through the Anti-Corruption Governors League movement, struck a blow to opinion this Sunday by reaching 5.9 million votes with which he left fellow candidates Federico Gutiérrez on the road, who had the support of the traditional parties, and Sergio Fajardo, who claimed that he was the only candidate from the so-called center.
From the outset, Hernández and his vice-presidential formula, Marelen Castillo, revalidated that they can take advantage of and advantage over Petro: they have in their favor the ability to summon the defeated candidates and political parties for the second round. Proof of this was that just minutes after the results were known, two of the now former candidates announced that they would join them: Federico Gutiérrez and Enrique Gómez.
The former mayor of Bucaramanga made the electoral comeback that the polls had predicted a reality and, at the point of videos on Tiktok and with his enhanced anti-corruption speech, he won 28.15% of the votes, so now he will have to point to a new stage of his campaign in which he must focus on summoning other sectors to defeat the one that the polls give as the most likely to come to power.
“Now we enter the second half and these next few days will be decisive in determining the future of the country. I am aware of the need to unite our country on the path of change that has become evident today, ”Hernandez assured – after knowing the results – in a live broadcast on networks from the kitchen of his house.
That task may not be so difficult for the 77-year-old applicant, because in addition to not being endorsed by traditional parties, he showed himself capable of establishing rapprochements with other applicants. Before the first round he managed to get Íngrid Betancourt, from Verde Oxígeno, to desist from his aspiration to join him, and tried to ally himself with Fajardo, who still hasn’t defined which way to go in second.
In the next 17 days, Hernández will have to strengthen his closeness to the business association, which has shown concern about the economic proposals, and he will have to look for spaces to have more than one coffee with politicians to achieve new adhesions to his campaign.