2023-06-10 11:26:00
Most recently (June 8, 2023), the International Research Institute for Climate Society (IRI), Columbia University and the Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States, have predicted that the probability of El Niño Another increase compared to the forecast results during May 23, surpassing 90%, dragging on until at least March 24 (Figure 2, left, red bar) and research from CPC (NOAA) expects that the strength of El More moderate Nino (>1.0 °C) has a probability of occurring 72-84% from Aug. 23-Mar. 24 (Figure 2, right, purple bars) and the strength of Severe El Niño (>1.5 °C) has the highest probability of 56% during Nov. 23 – Jan. 24 (right image 2, dark red bars).
Figure 3 indicates two indices (ONI index and IOD) from the global model. The forecast agrees that El Niño will occur quite certain and will accelerate from now on to a severe level in Aug. 23 (1.7 °C) and increase to 2.0 °C in Oct. 23.
It was found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Thailand to be drier than normal during the period. March-July and hotter than usual during October-June, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Southern Thailand is hotter and drier than usual from Dec. to Feb., while other regions will be warmer than usual from Dec. to Feb.
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