Posted Apr 7, 2023, 3:00 PMUpdated on Apr 7, 2023, 4:42 PM
The 2022 employment vintage turned out to be exceptional, fully driven by the post-Covid catch-up effect and despite the consequences of the war in Ukraine. The next one looks the same despite weaker GDP growth. This is what emerges from the annual barometer of Pôle emploi and Crédoc on the labor needs of companies.
Precisely, employers declare 3.04 million recruitment projects in 2023, i.e. as much as last year, of which 72% in long-term employment, permanent or fixed-term contracts of more than six months. “We remain at an extremely high level in France, which does not mark a decline […] Companies continue to submit job offers and to recruit”, underlined the director of studies and performance of the public operator, Stéphane Ducatez, presenting the barometer to the press.
Recruitment difficulties
Knowing that one hiring intention can trigger others, and that the history of this barometer shows that 8 out of 10 projects actually result in at least one hiring, these figures show to what extent the labor market continues to resist. Unless there is a major economic downturn, the 3 million planned recruitments will be exceeded. What’s more, nearly one in four hiring plans is related to a new activity, a percentage that has been rising steadily since 2017.
If hiring intentions remain stable, it is – a notable difference compared to what they were a year ago – thanks to VSEs: they are on the rise in companies with fewer than 10 employees, not more. of the. Significant variations are also expected depending on the sector compared to 2022: +8.3% in accommodation-catering, +1.8% in personal services, +0.8% in industry, but -5 .3% in retail trade. In the Top 3 of the most sought-after professions are waiters, ahead of winegrowers-arboriculturists-gatherers and cooks.
For the record, the Pôle emploi and Credoc survey has been carried out since 2002 among 2.4 million establishments, of which more than 420,000 responded to the 2023 edition, with a sounding of 20,000 of them. . It is backed up by a survey on anticipated recruitment difficulties, due to a lack of candidates in sufficient numbers or with the required profiles, or the impossibility of matching the requested remuneration.
Rare commodity roofers
Unsurprisingly, these are on the rise, since 61% of companies planning to hire this year expect to encounter them, i.e. 3 points more than in 2022. It is difficult to find a job that escapes this, the palm returning to roofers or roofers zinc workers (87.2%), or even a type of business, the gap between VSE and large group having narrowed a lot, pointed out Stéphane Ducatez.
And yet, companies manage to hire. Salaried employment increased by 335,000 in 2022, to reach 21 million (26.9 million with the public service), according to INSEE. In fact, despite the extension of recruitment times, 83.4% of job offers of one month or more submitted to Pôle emploi in 2022 were completed, and 7.5% are still in progress.
“Lost” jobs
Conversely, “only” 6.2% of them were abandoned for lack of suitable candidates, ie 223,000. The profiles of workers, qualified or not, are particularly concerned.
By extrapolating to all the recruitments made by him or not, the public operator estimates between 308,000 and 470,000 the number of jobs “lost” last year for this reason, including 203,000 to 310,000 sustainable jobs. The range is substantial in absolute terms, but has changed little since it represents 1.14% to 1.74% of total salaried employment at the end of last December, compared to 1 to 1.6% a year earlier .
VIDEO. The state of the labor market in France
To note
If 6 companies out of 10 anticipated difficulties in their recruitments last year, this turned out to be the case “only” for 47% of them.