Escalating Conflict: The Impact of Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Food System and Energy Prices

2023-08-09 20:33:38

Two months after its debut, the ground offensive led by kyiv is slipping. As troops struggle to advance south and east to reclaim occupied territories, the Black Sea, where Russian and Ukrainian attacks are on the rise, has become one of the epicentres of the war.

A month and a half ago, on July 17, Moscow decided to suspend the agreement on Ukrainian grain exports. The same day, the strategic bridge of Kerch, used in particular to transport equipment to the Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian front, was partially destroyed.

Since then, Russia has intensified its strikes from its ships towards Ukraine. But especially towards the river ports of Izmail and Reni. Because kyiv maintains its grain exports, via the Danube this time.

An assault on the global food system?

“That the Russian terrorists do not even hope to be able to cause a world food crisis or create a new catastrophe on prices”, reacted then the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The United States accuses Russia of “aggression” on the global food system.

Russia, for its part, is defending itself. “Western interest is unfortunately purely opportunistic. They have only recently concerned themselves with the threat of world hunger and only to the extent that they think they can try to exploit this subject to demonize Russia,” he said. Dmitry Polyanskiy, Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN.

Since the end of the grain agreement and the intensification of the strikes, the price of grain has increased. And that of energies could experience the same fate. Because 3% of the world’s oil passes through the Black Sea.

New proximity between Russia and NATO

Not to mention that this new battlefield places Russia and NATO in a new rather dangerous proximity.

Indeed, three member countries of NATO border the Black Sea: Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. A proximity that increases the risk of confrontation. Or simply the risk of an incident, like last March when a Russian plane intercepted an American surveillance drone.

Sujet TV: Karima Benamrouche et Tamara Muncanovic

Web adaptation by Fabien Grenon

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