2023-09-30 09:42:46
There is a glimmer of hope on the horizon for 2024, with economic growth forecast at 2.5%. Several factors contribute to this optimistic forecast.
Tunisia, seeking economic stability since the 2011 revolution, faces a new challenge as economic growth forecasts for 2023 raise some concerns. The latest report on regional economic prospects, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), draws, in fact, a nuanced picture which mixes challenges and reasons for hope. While the year 2022 had suggested a slight recovery with growth of 2.4%, the forecasts for 2023 are more modest, with expected economic growth of 1.9%.
A strong dependence to geopolitical uncertainties
According to the EBRD, the main factors weighing on Tunisia’s economic outlook in 2023 are unfavorable external conditions, high inflation and persistent social unrest. Tunisia, heavily dependent on international trade, is vulnerable to fluctuations in world markets. Geopolitical uncertainties and global trade tensions have had a direct impact on the country’s economic performance. Inflation, which reached an alarming rate of 9.1% year-on-year in July 2023 (9.3% in August), has had a domino effect on the Tunisian economy, particularly affecting low-income households. income. In its wake, high inflation has led to an increase in living costs, which has weighed on the purchasing power of Tunisians.
The EBRD report estimates that “social unrest”, which has persisted in recent years, has also had a negative impact on investor confidence and economic stability.
Despite these challenges, the tourism, financial services and manufacturing sectors have shown signs of expansion, supported by the gradual improvement in the global health situation. Tourism, in particular, has shown encouraging strength, contributing to job creation and supporting economic growth.
However, this growth was offset by the poor performance of the agricultural and mining sectors. Environmental challenges and fluctuations in raw material prices have weighed on these crucial industries for the Tunisian economy. There is a glimmer of hope on the horizon for 2024, with economic growth forecast at 2.5%. Several factors contribute to this optimistic forecast. First, the tourism sector is expected to continue to grow, attracting foreign visitors and boosting foreign exchange earnings. Additionally, sales of phosphate, an important natural resource for Tunisia, are expected to increase, which will also support GDP.
An agreement with the IMF would be welcome
The EBRD also believes that a potential agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could bring a breath of fresh air to the Tunisian economy in 2024. This agreement could help stabilize public finances and restore the confidence of international investors , paving the way for fundamental economic reforms.
However, Tunisia’s economic situation remains fragile, and profound reforms will be necessary to ensure lasting economic growth. Unemployment and public debt management remain a priority for the Tunisian government.
According to several economic experts, Tunisia is on the right track with regard to the management of its external debt, as evidenced by the declaration of Mohsen Hassen, for whom “Tunisia has really managed to repay nearly 74% of its debt service external, contrary to the forecasts of rating agencies and financial markets. Experts are unanimous on this subject: profound reforms should be initiated to maintain good economic health and help revitalize the economy. Economic reforms which will have to integrate a new (old) situation, that of climate change and the reduction of water resources.
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