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Around 4:20 p.m. this Thursday, the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, was trading at 30.25 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), shortly after reaching 29.85 euros (29.11 francs) per MWh. , a price not seen since June 2021.
“The global level of natural gas consumption has continued to fall” with the rise in temperatures in Europe, explains in a note Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at Seb. Heating demand is the main source of gas consumption for individuals.
Above average storage levels
“Global warming is reducing the demand for gas for heating,” he adds, with expected short-term temperatures remaining higher than the seasonal average and thus reducing demand.
Storage levels are also well above average in Europe, Energi Danmark analysts argue. “Inventories are close to record levels for this time of year,” confirms Bjarne Schieldrop, recalling that demand remains weak for the time being. Europe is thus well on its way to rebuilding its stocks before next winter. “Europe’s energy crisis was effectively halted thanks to the EU’s exceptional adaptation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he says.
Less dependence on Russian gas
The Old Continent has greatly reduced its dependence on Russian gas. According to estimates by DNB analysts, Russia supplied about 40% of European gas imports before the war in Ukraine, compared to less than 10% now.
The European Union last week launched its first international call for tenders for grouped gas purchases, in order to obtain better prices to replenish stocks before the winter of 2023-2024. Twenty-five suppliers have already responded to this call.
Read also: Liquefied natural gas, the last Russian hydrocarbon in Europe
These European “group purchases” should make it possible to avoid the situation of the summer of 2022, when States and companies had rushed to the gas market at the same time to build up their stocks, fueling the surge in prices.
Since the start of the year, European natural gas has fallen by more than 60%, far from its historic record reached in March 2022 at 345 euros per MWh, but still at high levels compared to previous years. In 2020, gas fluctuated around 15 euros per MWh.
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