Donald Trump wants to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, drawing stern warnings from security experts regarding the future of European security and Ukraine.
If the earth were a cake, Trump, Putin, and Xi would likely lean over it and carve it up amongst themselves, with a slice for everyone and all three major powers satisfied, according to security expert Gerhard Mangott, who explained this assessment to merkur.de.
Mangott believes the major powers are working behind the scenes on a grand deal where each pursues its own distinct interests. Both he and fellow security expert Carlo Masala warned Archyde and other outlets about the geopolitical consequences of any such agreement forged entirely over the heads of Europeans.
Speculation surrounds a potential trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi, which could revive 19th-century style great power politics. Mangott, a professor of politics at the University of Innsbruck, sees these developments pointing toward a systematic scramble to lock in exclusive spheres of influence.
“China shall have its sphere of influence, the USA naturally in the western hemisphere—meaning Central and South America—and Russia in Eastern Europe,” Mangott told merkur.de, describing how Trump, Putin, and Xi likely envision carving up the globe.
Discussions are actively underway regarding a potential trilateral summit between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump is driving these plans forward and said that he would strongly welcome such a high-level gathering, with an airspace meeting already rumored around the Apec summit on November 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, China.
Moscow’s reception to the idea appears receptive, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov both confirming that Washington and Moscow are actively negotiating a meeting of the three heads of state.
Further attention was drawn when a post by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former Ukraine negotiator, appeared on the platform X discussing the necessity of a broader European security architecture during ongoing Ukraine discussions in Abu Dhabi.
Carlo Masala, a military expert at the Bundeswehr University Munich, views the American push for a security order extending beyond Ukraine with deep skepticism. He argues that Moscow’s ambitions stretch far beyond mere territorial claims inside Ukraine.
“Russia wants to achieve what it has wanted to achieve the whole time. It wants to make the framework of negotiations bigger. It does not want to make compromises in Ukraine and at the same time talk about the European security architecture,” Masala told merkur.de.
Specifically, Moscow aims to turn back the clock on NATO’s footprint, a move that would carry massive consequences for Europe by removing NATO structures and troop presences across Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
Masala said that upcoming US reviews on troop positioning in Europe could see Washington independently withdraw all forces from those regions, giving Moscow a freer hand to exert political and economic pressure on the states bridging Belarus and Germany’s eastern border.
While Trump and Putin would prefer to pull China into the Ukraine negotiations, Mangott told merkur.de that Beijing remains hesitant, despite maintaining an officially neutral stance on the conflict.
“Peking does not want to assume the role of a mediator because it is naturally on the Russian side. And because it does not want to fail with a mediation mission in this war,” Mangott said, adding that Xi views the conflict strictly as an issue to be settled with Europeans.
Washington would likely also seek to address nuclear disarmament during any potential trilateral summit, a topic Beijing routinely resists. Consequently, if a three-way meeting materializes, Mangott assesses that its primary focus will likely center on resolving the war in Iran rather than a breakthrough on European borders.
Regarding current talks in the United Arab Emirates, Moscow is pushing for territorial compromises that weaken Kyiv by forcing the complete cession of the Donbass region to Russia. As diplomatic channels churn ahead of upcoming troop posture reviews, European capitals remain on edge awaiting the next formal move from Washington and Moscow.
