2023-09-19 04:00:40
The average rate of real estate loans over twenty years granted in August 2023 amounts to 3.92%, according to the Housing Credit Observatory/CSA. A stratospheric rise, since rates stood at 1.85% in July 2022, and only 0.99% in December 2021.
Enough to give buyers a cold sweat. Because the increase in the cost of credit automatically translates into a drop in their real estate purchasing power: a couple with 4,200 euros of income could borrow 300,000 euros in 2021 (1% rate), only 249,000 euros in the first quarter 2023 (3%) and 228,000 euros today (4%) according to Vousfinancer calculations.
The movement continued in September: the scales increased by 20 to 30 basis points, bringing the average rate over twenty years to 4%. Banks adjust their offer according to the conditions under which they refinance, the competition and their credit production objectives. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been engaged in a monetary tightening policy since July 2022, the objective of which is to bring inflation back to a target level of 2%. Long-term work, since the price increase has reached another 5.3 % over one year in the euro zone in July 2023, according to Eurostat.
The ECB’s key rates thus rose from −0.50% in June 2022 to 4% since September 14, 2023. At the same time, ten-year interest rates are also on an upward slope, with a 10-year OAT , the benchmark government bond on the French market, around 3.20%. Consequence: banks pass on the increase in their financing costs to the rates they apply to their customers.
“Positive signals”
“Real estate loan rates could reach 5% at the start of 2024, before stabilizing”, estimates Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies at Empruntis. A level never reached since the end of 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis. Too bad for buyers, whose borrowing capacity will further erode.
But the tide is slowly starting to turn, as banks seem more inclined to grant loans. “Since September, we have felt positive signals. Banks are starting to half-open the credit tap to return more widely in 2024,” notes Caroline Arnould, general manager of the broker Cafpi. Rates will then be higher, which will allow them to improve their margins. An observation shared by Ludovic Huzieux, co-founder of Artémis Courtage: “Banks that had been out of the market for a year began to return at the beginning of September. »
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