2023-09-24 15:49:27
Among private traders, fortunes have been amassed this year in this sector with performances of respectively 160% for Addoha, 120% for Alliances and 30% (only!) for Espaces Saada. Rallies which started at the end of May, after the first quarter figures and which have been consolidated for a few weeks after the Q2 indicators, particularly for Addoha and Alliances. But it must be said, if the timing of these trends corresponds to the publication of financial indicators, a lot of speculation accompanies the movement. Individual traders are increasing their trading operations on the 3 stocks in the sector which have the advantage of being extremely liquid.
But what about professional investors?
A stock broker testifies after the close on Friday September 22. “This rally is impressive. The volumes are considerable. But today, it is still difficult to explain and justify such enthusiasm…we are faced with two types of approach among our UCITS clients. Some buy stocks in the sector with the expectation that fundamentals will improve in the coming years. They feel it’s probably a good time to go back to buying. While others buy more passively, implement the sector so as not to find themselves underweighted in a sector which outperforms and which gains weight in the indices. They do not want to risk ending up with performance below benchmarks (editor’s note: the benchmark (for example the masi index) is the reference index to which the performance of UCITS is compared by clients, particularly institutional investors).
For this same broker, “Real estate stocks have long been shunned by investors due to poor performance and results and critical debt. But today, as long as the momentum is positive, it is possible to see more and more investors interested in it».
Technical analysis: A well-oriented real estate sector
Speaking of momentum, on the chart below we represent the sector index masi real estate composed of Addoha, Alliances and RDS. And the least we can say is that it is a sector in great shape.
We can easily see on this graph (each bar represents a trading week) a long period where the sector was forgotten then, during the week of September 18 to 22, a clear exit. The volumes are substantial and the quotation hole (GAP) formed at the exit shows that buyers are snapping up the paper.
From a chartist point of view, this represents a powerful signal which would allow the sector index to seek new highs, first towards the red bearish oblique line which connects the historical price peaks together, i.e. a potential of 20% then, with a little force, a continuation towards 8,500 points to achieve a performance of 45%.
Investors should note that the BAM Council on Tuesday and the publication of the half-year results of the 3 companies during this shortened week, where the flow of UCITS will be modest, can significantly increase volatility in one direction or the other.
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Composition of the masi real estate index
Ticker Instrument Number of securities Price (MAD) Capitalization ADH DOUJA PROM ADDOHA 402,551,254 16.30 6,561,585,440.20 ADI ALLIANCES 22,078,588,114.00 2,516,959,032.00 RDS RES DAR SAADA 26,208,850 23. 54 616,956,329.00
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