CExports are expected to increase by 10.5% to 58.1 billion dirhams in 2023, indicates BAM in its recent report on monetary policy, adding that shipments of phosphate and derivatives would rebound by 43.4% to 115.1 billion dirhams, in line with the expected rise in prices, before falling to 10.8% in 2023 to 102.7 billion dirhams.
With regard to exports of the “agricultural and agri-food” sector, they should improve by 6.5% to 74.2 billion dirhams in 2022 and by 1.3% to 75.2 billion dirhams in 2023, the same source said.
Imports for their part would show an increase of 24.2%, driven mainly by a 61.6% increase in the energy bill.
In 2023, the rise in imports should be limited to 0.3%, notably due to the 7.8% increase in those of consumer goods and a 9.2% reduction in the energy bill to 111.2 billion dirhams.
At the same time, and in connection with the reopening of borders, travel receipts should improve, while remaining at levels below those before the crisis, going from 34.3 billion dirhams in 2021 to 54.3 billion dirhams in 2022. , then to 70.9 billion dirhams in 2023.
As for transfers from Moroccans residing abroad (MRE), and after an increase of 37.5% to a record amount of 93.7 billion dirhams in 2021, they should fall by 6.8% to 87.3 billion dirhams in 2022 and from 3.8% to 84 billion dirhams in 2023.
In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, receipts would be around 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the forecast horizon.
Taking into account in particular the assumptions of donation inflows of 2.2 billion dirhams in 2022 and 2 billion dirhams in 2023 and planned external financing from the Treasury internationally, the official reserve assets (AOR) would stand at 342.5 billion dirhams at the end of 2022 and 346.4 billion dirhams at the end of 2023, i.e. the equivalent of more than 6 months of imports of goods and services.
Overall, exports are expected to increase by 22% in 2022, then increase by 0.8% in 2023.