Chen Shizhong, commander of the Central Epidemic Command Center, said there were 442 new local cases yesterday. Chen Zhengnan, a famous doctor, analyzed the time point of the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan in a single day on Facebook yesterday.Picture: Taken from the live broadcast of the epidemic
Yesterday, there were 442 new local cases. Because the command center has started not to analyze the epidemic situation in a single county and city, the famous Internet celebrity doctor Shen Zhengnan analyzed the relevant epidemic situation in each county and city on Facebook yesterday, and said at the same time that he believes that the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan in a single day is The time point of breaking 10,000 can be compared with the situation in Shanghai, because the current Rt value in Taiwan is almost the same as that in Shanghai, that is, it will double in 3 days.
Shen Zhengnan said that yesterday’s new cases were mainly from Taipei, with a total of 95 cases, but only 27 of them were known sources of infection. This has made Taipei’s Rt value the highest in Taiwan since March 20, reaching over 2.4, while New Taipei added 143 cases yesterday, and there are currently tens of thousands of people on the list. “I don’t know how long it can last? If you don’t go down, there will be no room, at least home isolation.”
Shen Zhengnan pointed out that if the current epidemic investigation cannot even complete the interview of contacts, such as adding thousands of people, you should use the mobile phone to locate at this time, send a text message to notify the contacts, and ask the contacts to come out for inspection, or use home quick screening. In this way, he believes that the amount of community screening or home rapid screening must be increased quickly, “this is more important than home care.”
Shen Zhengnan further said that relatively speaking, other counties and cities are still under control. For example, there were 38 new cases in Keelung, only 6 cases with unknown source of infection, and 41 new cases in Taoyuan, including 16 cases of migrant workers. He said that there were 38 new cases in Kaohsiung, less than yesterday, because the complex cluster has gradually been contained. While other counties and cities are sporadic clusters or cases, it is not difficult to deal with.
As for when Taiwan’s single-day number of confirmed cases exceeded 1,000? Shen Zhengnan said that in terms of new cases, more than 50% came from Shuangbei, and 75% came from Beibei Ji Tao, so Huadong and Central and South only accounted for 25%, and if you only look at the central area, it was even less. In fact, it reflects the R0 value, and the biggest factor is of course the population density and the flow of people. If the entire Taiwan Rt remains at the current 2, it will only take a week. When will it break 10,000? Shen Zhengnan’s answer is: 17 days later. He believes that it is not difficult to calculate these, “as long as you compare the epidemic situation in Shanghai, you can know.” Because Taiwan’s current Rt value is almost the same as Shanghai’s, that is, it will double in 3 days, while Shanghai has increased from 1 million to over 10,000, only Took 3 weeks.
He further explained that if there are more than 10,000 new cases, Shuangbei will account for more than 5,000 cases, Beibei Jitao will account for 7,500 cases, and Huadong, central and southern parts will account for about 2,500. The 2,500 cases will be distributed to more than 10 counties and cities, probably Huadong. About 100 or 200 new cases are added in each county and city in the central and southern parts of the country. Under such circumstances, if the epidemic can be reconciled, the spread of the epidemic from Beibei Kitao can be slightly blocked. If the Rt value of the whole Taiwan continues to decline, then the epidemic It may start to bend and not continue to climb.
Shen Zhengnan said that this is only a linear estimate, and when there are thousands of new additions, Shuangbei or Beibei peaches will not be able to adjust the epidemic, and the pressure of the epidemic to spread to the east, central and southern parts of Huadong will be even greater, and the situation may not be the same. the same.
He believes that no matter what, everyone should not give up containment! Counties and cities should set epidemic prevention goals according to their own conditions, and not everything may follow Shuangbei. He believes that how the epidemic will evolve, some of which are not up to me, “but what we can do is to try our best to contain it, and never give up lightly!” Because South Korea and Japan, the density of confirmed cases in various provinces and counties has a gap between urban and rural areas, and it can reach 8 times as much.
Shen Zhengnan said that Vietnam must now undergo a quick screening 6 hours before boarding the plane, which means that the official also hopes to reduce the fever of the number of positive arrivals, so the relaxation of the 7-day quarantine should not be implemented for the time being. “Of course, if there are more than 10,000 new additions, and there are viruses everywhere in the country like abroad, then it will be meaningless to continue to block the outside world.”