There was a certain consensus on calling certain decades, the seventies, the eighties or the nineties, but currently it is not very clear with what we are sure that we are right indicating that there are a few days left to start the 20s or the third decade of the third millennium according to the Gregorian almanac. For users of the Chinese, Islamic, Hindu or Hebrew calendar, the year will not be as round as 2020.
And what can we expect in the next 12 months?
US presidential elections the first week of November. Until July 2020, the Democrats will not have a candidate, who in three months will have to make himself known to the electorate to seize office from Donald Trump, who with an economy at full employment and growing at around 2%, must avoid any mistake. that modifies the current intention of his voters.
China will have its lowest growth in two decades but will emphasize what has been called moderate prosperity while its influence grows in technology (it is already the second country that registers the most patents worldwide) and in geopolitics (through loans and massive investments).
The European banking sector will face increased rules and regulations in a near-zero interest rate environment. There is probably no industry that has had to face major restructuring in the last decade. Where the income will come from will be the first uncertainty for European and North American financial institutions while new mergers are predicted.
The importance of the Middle East that will be strengthened with Dubai celebrating the Universal Expo under the slogan Connecting Minds, Creating Future and the G20 meeting in Riyadh in November
A very important question is whether the price of Brent oil will remain weak without rising above USD 65 or, on the contrary, the fear of a recession, the measures of the central banks and a decrease in trade wars in an election year for the North Americans will serve for an economic revival and therefore for a rebound in black gold. I believe that until November the current tenant of the White House will do everything possible to maintain the economic moment, so he would bet on the second possibility.
From a social point of view, it is interesting to analyze the revolts that are taking place on the five continents, from Lebanon to Hong Kong, passing through Bolivia, Algeria or Catalonia. The reasons can be very varied from economic decline, to corruption or discontent with the current political situation of each city, region or country. We are more with more opinions and desires for improvement. Every year we add 90 million net people to the world total, reaching 7,850 million citizens on the planet in 2020. Add to this the problem of pensions with an inverted population pyramid in many Western countries, -taking into account that those born after 1955 will turn 65- where for the first time those over 30 will be more numerous than minors.
In short, new uncertainties, challenges and opportunities
Feliz 2020