Financial breakfast on February 14: The dollar fell amid market consolidation, waiting for the release of US inflation data
On Tuesday, February 14, the U.S. dollar fell in volatile trading on Monday. Affected by stronger stock markets and lower long-term Treasury yields, investors consolidated positions ahead of the release of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday; gold prices The decline came as investors braced for the highly-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for January, which could influence the Fed’s rate-hike strategy. Oil prices climbed as investors weighed Russia’s plans to cut crude production against short-term demand concerns.
Commodity closing situation:Brent crude futures settled 0.25% higher at $86.61 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled 0.5% higher at $80.14 a barrel. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6 percent to $1,863.50.
U.S. stocks closed:The Dow Jones index closed up 1.11% at 34246.32 points; the S&P 500 index closed up 1.16% at 4138.05 points; the Nasdaq composite index closed up 1.48% at 11891.79 points.
preview tuesday
precious metal
Gold prices fell on Monday as investors braced for the highly-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for January, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike strategy.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said gold “was down slightly ahead of the CPI data.” All eyes will be on Tuesday’s U.S. CPI data, which is expected to climb 0.4% in January. Revisions to previous data showed consumer prices rose in December, rather than falling as previously reported.
Haberkron emphasized that the inflation data could come in a little less than expected if it misses expectations, which could present a buying opportunity for gold. The market has increased its focus on the Fed’s future tightening policy, believing that interest rates will peak at around 5.15%, and that the rate cut will be later and slower.
Fed Governor Bowman said the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates to get them high enough for inflation to come back down.
The dollar index fell 0.3%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased after hitting its highest level since early January in early trade, easing pressure on gold prices. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $21.91 an ounce, while platinum rose 1% to $954.32. Palladium rose 1.8% to $1,569.53, after falling to a near three-year low during the session.
Oil prices climbed on Monday, recovering from earlier losses, as investors weighed Russia’s crude output cut plan and near-term demand concerns ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.“The fundamental backdrop for oil remains very strong and as China reopens, we’re going to see more demand while supply from Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains intact,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Or reduce, which is good.”
Oil prices hit their highest in two weeks on Friday after Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, said it would cut production by 500,000 bpd in March, equivalent to about 5% of the country’s total output, in retaliation for Western criticism of its oil and gas production. Restrictions are imposed on the export of petroleum products.
UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei said on Monday that the oil market is currently stable and that he sees no need to hold an OPEC+ meeting ahead of schedule.
A cargo of Azerbaijani crude set sail from the Turkish port of Ceyhan on Monday, the first shipment since a devastating earthquake in the region on Feb. 6, easing supply concerns somewhat. On the supply side, shale crude oil production in seven of the largest U.S. shale basins is expected to hit record highs in March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.
foreign exchange
The dollar slipped in choppy trade on Monday, as investors consolidated positions ahead of key U.S. consumer price data on Tuesday, hurt by stronger stocks and lower long-term Treasury yields.
However, the dollar rose to a six-week high against the rate-sensitive yen on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tighter for longer. This view will be challenged or confirmed by the CPI data. Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at payments firm Convera in Washington, said “rising stocks and falling yields gave the dollar a breather ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data, and risk trades also weighed on the yen, while the next Bank of Japan governor It may not necessarily signal an immediate change to the negative interest rate policy, and that doesn’t help the yen either.”
Investors expect data on Tuesday showing headline CPI rose 0.5 percent in January from a month earlier after falling 0.1 percent in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent the previous month, a Archyde.com poll showed.
The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.0719 in late New York trade, having hit a one-month low of $1.0656 in Asian trade. Sterling was up 0.6% at $1.2134, having hit a one-month low of $1.1961 last week. That left the dollar index at 103.29, down 0.3%.
The dollar rose to 132.91 against the yen intraday, its highest since Jan. 6. It was up 0.7% in late New York trade at 132.34. “Markets don’t want to be short dollar-yen ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York. , at 4.53 percent, after hitting its highest level since late November.
“With a mild pullback in the dollar after last week’s strong gains, I don’t think we’ve broken key levels yet. But after last week’s move, we’re consolidating some positions ahead of tomorrow’s CPI,” said Bannockburn’s Chandler.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields were a major factor driving the yen’s weakness. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a six-week high of 3.755% on Monday, while the yield on the two-year note hit 4.56%, the highest since late November. The yen fell sharply to a 32-year low of 151.94 per dollar last year as U.S. interest rates rose while Japanese rates remained near zero.
。
This year, the yen has pared losses as U.S. interest rates appear to be nearing a peak and expectations have risen that the Bank of Japan will move away from its ultra-loose stance, but both now appear to be on hold.
The Japanese government may nominate Kazuo Ueda, a former member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee, as the next governor of the central bank, two government officials familiar with the matter told Archyde.com on Friday. In an interview on the same day, Kazuo Ueda said it was appropriate for the Bank of Japan to maintain its current ultra-loose policy.
In the U.S., money markets expect U.S. interest rates to peak at 5.2% around July, compared with the Fed’s current benchmark rate target range of 4.5-4.75%, but the market has mostly backed off expectations for a sharp rate cut later this year. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc strengthened after Switzerland released higher-than-expected inflation data. The dollar slipped as low as 0.9193 Swiss francs, before falling 0.4 percent to 0.9197 francs in late New York trade.
market news
U.S. plans to release 26 million more barrels of crude, as previously authorized by Congress
The Biden administration plans to sell an additional 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is expected to be delivered between April and June. The sale is part of a sales plan for this fiscal year approved by U.S. lawmakers years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. Department of Energy has sought to halt some oil sales required by 2015 legislation in order to replenish reserves, which now stand at about 371 million barrels. After this release, reserves will drop to about 345 million barrels. In addition, Congress called for the release of about 140 million barrels of oil between fiscal years 2024 and 2027, but that part of the plan was scrapped after Congress approved a provision in Biden’s spending bill in December.
The high-frequency data “started off” swiped the screen, and the signal of economic recovery continued to strengthen
The recently released data on prices, finance, and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in January have improved significantly, and the economy has achieved a “good start”. High-frequency data further show that on the basis of the steady recovery of demand, the recovery on the production side is also accelerating. According to the analysis, although many high-frequency indicators are still lower than the pre-epidemic levels, they have shown a continuous upward trend. Fitch has recently raised its forecast for China’s full-year economic growth. The agency said that although many high-frequency indicators are still lower than pre-epidemic levels, they have shown a continuous upward trend recently. The rapid rebound after the shock wave of the epidemic means that economic activity in the first half of 2023 may be stronger than previously expected. (Securities Times)
Russian Deputy Prime Minister: Russia’s total oil exports will reach 242 million tons in 2022
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that in 2022, Russia’s total oil exports will reach 242 million tons, an increase of 7.6%; Russia’s total oil output in 2022 will be 535 million tons, an increase of 2% compared to 2021; The total volume was 184.4 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 25.1%. (CCTV News)
In 2022, the number of charging infrastructure in my country will reach 5.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%
According to Liang Changxin, spokesman of the National Energy Administration, the number of charging infrastructure in my country will reach 5.2 million in 2022, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%. Among them, the public charging infrastructure increased by about 650,000 units, and the cumulative number reached 1.8 million; the private charging infrastructure increased by about 1.9 million units, and the cumulative number exceeded 3.4 million units. Liang Changxin said that my country’s charging market is showing a trend of diversified development. At present, there are more than 3,000 companies operating various charging piles. The charging volume of electric vehicles continues to grow, and the annual charging volume in 2022 will exceed 40 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 85%.
India’s inflation intensified, and the CPI returned to the “6 era” in January
According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics of India on Monday, India’s CPI in January 2023 rose by 6.52% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.72%, and it was the first time in three months that it exceeded the upper limit of the RBI’s inflation target. The data also confirmed monetary authorities’ concerns that price pressures persist and that swift action is necessary. Rahul Bajoria, chief economist at Barclays, said today’s data confirmed the RBI’s hawkish rhetoric, while data showed that rising food prices were driving up prices in India. Accelerated price rises mean that the Indian central bank may further tighten policy, and economists at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect the Indian central bank to continue raising interest rates in the future. The next RBI meeting will be in April.
European countries have paid nearly 800 billion euros to tackle energy crisis
On February 13, local time, statistics released by a Belgian research institution showed that European countries’ fiscal expenditures to cope with soaring energy costs climbed to nearly 800 billion euros. According to the agency’s analysis data, European countries have spent a total of 792 billion euros to deal with the energy crisis, of which Germany topped the list with 270 billion euros in expenditure. In terms of per capita expenditure, Luxembourg, Denmark and Germany are the top three.
In 2022, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will exceed 1 trillion kWh for the first time
The National Energy Administration held a press conference this afternoon to introduce the development of renewable energy in my country in 2022. Data show that in 2022, my country’s wind power photovoltaic annual power generation will exceed 1 trillion kWh for the first time. In 2022, my country’s wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 1.19 trillion kwh, an increase of 207.3 billion kwh over 2021, a year-on-year increase of 21%, which is close to the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents across the country. In 2022, the power generation capacity of renewable energy will reach 2.7 trillion kWh, accounting for 31.6% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than that in 2021. The role of renewable energy in ensuring energy supply is becoming more and more obvious.
Cyclone brings heavy rainfall, nine New Zealand regions declare emergency
With the heavy rainfall brought by Hurricane “Gabriel”, as of February 13 local time, nine regions including Auckland, Northern Territory, Bay of Plenty, Waikato, and Gisborne declared a state of emergency in New Zealand. Affected by the hurricane, about 58,000 households in the North Island of New Zealand have lost power at present, and some households may have to wait 7 days for power to be restored.