Status: 04/13/2022 04:03 am
For a long time it was considered impossible for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Now it’s becoming more and more likely. The meeting of the heads of government and a current security report is about the new situation.
From the Cold War to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, nothing has so far persuaded Finland and Sweden to join the western military alliance NATO – and thus give up their military independence. Finland in particular did not want to irritate its Russian neighbors and instead wanted to be a kind of bridge builder between East and West, as was the case at the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and then US President Donald Trump in Helsinki in 2018.
In recent years, however, the relationship between the two countries and NATO has become ever closer, even without membership. At the end of March, Sweden and Finland took part in a large NATO exercise in Norway part. In Finland in particular, there is a growing awareness that the country is very vulnerable due to its approximately 1,300-kilometer border with Russia. The war in Ukraine has now made it even clearer to the northern Europeans: Without NATO membership, one cannot rely on the full military support of other Western countries in an emergency.
Finland’s Left Party is still slowing down
According to polls at the beginning of January, just 30 percent of Finns were in favor of joining NATO. At the end of March it was more than 60 percent. The desire for protection from neighboring Russia has been growing steadily since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. And in politics, too, the mood is changing: several bourgeois and right-wing populist parties have long been open to NATO membership. Last weekend, the second-largest governing party, the Center Party, cleared the way for this after long opposed to NATO membership. The Social Democrats under Prime Minister Sanna Marin and the Green coalition partner also want to position themselves in the coming weeks.
The heads of government of Finland and Sweden, Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson, want to coordinate security issues in their countries in Stockholm.
Build: AP
The Finnish government intends to present a report on foreign and security policy today – it is unclear how detailed it will be on the NATO issue. Nevertheless, many political experts in Finland expect that it will be more a question of when than if an application for membership will be made. Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö also expects a “huge parliamentary majority” for accession.
However, the left-wing party, who is also in government, is still holding back. Their MP Katja Hänninen emphasized on the Finnish radio Yle: “Finland’s military independence has given us an important role as crisis mediators, we are excellently prepared to defend our country and have our own functioning military.”
Sweden’s opposition is putting pressure on
In Sweden, many people are traditionally proud of their military independence. The country has not been directly involved in a war for over 200 years. This neutrality helped the country escape the world wars of the 20th century. Critics therefore say why take the risk now of possibly being drawn into a conflict.
Similar to its neighbors, however, the mood has recently shifted: according to a survey, shortly after the start of the Ukraine war, almost half of Swedes were in favor of the country joining NATO and just over a quarter were clearly against it.
Here, however, the political situation is somewhat more complicated. Parliamentary elections are in the fall – and the NATO issue has increasingly become a campaign issue in recent weeks. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s ruling Social Democrats have traditionally opposed NATO membership. The bourgeois parties are now using this to put pressure on the government as the election campaign begins. Opposition leader Ulf Kristersson has promised to apply for membership if he wins the election. Most recently, even the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats had signaled that they might support NATO membership. This would result in a majority for membership in the Swedish parliament.
Concerns about Russia’s reaction
However, it would not be without risks for the two states. MP Juha Mäenpää from the Finnish right-wing populists “The Finns”, for example, believes that an application for membership now would further escalate the already tense relationship with Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said that NATO membership of Finland and Sweden would not bring stability in Europe. NATO is a “confrontational instrument”. The spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, had already threatened “serious military and political consequences” at the end of February.
The Finnish foreign policy expert Charly Salonius-Pasternak thinks two reactions from Moscow are conceivable on Finnish radio: cyber attacks on authorities – or that Russia sends refugees from other countries across the Finnish border to build up pressure. Just last Friday there was a cyber attack on the Finnish defense and foreign ministries, the perpetrator: still unclear.