2023-12-16 06:01:00
(CNN) — A storm from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to crash into Florida this Saturday and strengthen as it moves up the east coast over the weekend, unleashing heavy rain, gusts of wind and hazards along the coast.
Despite the time of year, a major snow storm is not expected, but this very hot, humid and windy storm could affect those looking to travel during the holidays and leave the population without electricity.
The storm’s path is becoming clearer as the computer models underlying the forecast show it will approach the Atlantic coast on Sunday and Monday after passing Florida on Saturday.
Here’s what to expect for each day:
Saturday: Storm hits Florida
Heavy rain will reach parts of southern and western Florida by mid-morning Saturday and will increase in scope and intensity throughout the day. On Saturday night, heavy rainfall will soak nearly the entire state and spread into the southeast.
A level 2 out of 4 excess precipitation risk is forecast for most of Florida and southernmost Georgia on Saturday. Rain could fall hard enough on Saturday to cause flash flooding and may cause streams and rivers to swell.
South Florida will be particularly vulnerable to flash flooding after multiple rounds of heavy rain this week, but the same could happen anywhere there is persistent deluge.
Heavy rain will also be accompanied by gusty winds, with the strongest winds arriving Saturday night as the center of the storm approaches the Florida coast. Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 65 kmh are possible across much of the Florida peninsula through Saturday night.
Stronger gusts are likely along the coast, but that will depend on the exact path the storm takes as it approaches the Florida coast on Saturday, which is not yet clear.
A slight shift in the storm’s track to the north or south as it moves toward the Florida Peninsula will shift the location of the strongest winds and make a significant difference in the location and extent of coastal flooding.
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Saturday night across the Florida panhandle. A level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms includes Tampa and Orlando.
Two scenarios are in play for a storm that will impact the Southeast this weekend. (Credit: CNN Weather)
Sunday: Rain and wind spread along the east coast
On Sunday, the storm will track northeast from Florida and approach the East Coast, expanding its effects from Georgia to parts of the Northeast.
There is a Level 2 out of 4 excess rain risk on Sunday from northern South Carolina to parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
During the day, the heaviest rain will be concentrated in the Carolinas and coastal Georgia as the storm strengthens and begins to move toward the coast. Rain will begin in the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast on Sunday afternoon, but the heaviest will arrive in the afternoon and evening on Sunday.
Flash flooding is possible in areas affected by multiple deluges.
Strong gusts of wind will hit coastal areas from the southeast to the mid-Atlantic on Sunday and the northeast coast on Sunday night. Frequent gusts of 65 to 80 kmh are possible along much of the coast, while inland areas there will be light winds, but the worst gusts will be avoided.
The combination of strong winds and heavy rain will likely slow travel in a significant portion of the region, especially in the busy I-95 corridor. Gusty winds and reduced visibility may delay some air travel.
Monday: The storm reaches its maximum strength in the northeast
The storm will reach full strength on Monday, just in time to cause disruption across much of the Northeast. It is forecast to move very close to the northeast coast during this time, but could also move away from the coast.
Regardless of its exact track, the storm will bring northeaster-like impacts to the Northeast Coast on Monday, with the exception of snowfall.
The heaviest rain and strongest winds are likely to be focused on New England on Monday, but wet and windy conditions will be the norm across most of the Northeast.
Wind gusts up to 95 km/h are possible along the New England coast beginning early Monday morning and along the Maine coast Monday afternoon. Such strong winds mean power outages are possible in the region, especially when combined with heavy rain that soaks soils and makes trees easier to fell.
Wind-driven coastal flooding is also possible and could become significant if the timing coincides with high tides.
This article was published on December 14 and has been updated.
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