“I was doing cartwheels down the street,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Wednesday morning, calling the Democratic sweep in the U.S. midterms “a victory for Canada,” the BBC reported. The result delivered American voters’ rebuke of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the country’s closest trading partner, but it is unlikely to bring Ottawa relief from those duties anytime soon.
The tariff stack on Canada runs several layers deep: sectoral duties on autos, steel, aluminium and forestry, plus an additional 50% levy Trump imposed in August on $20bn (£15bn) of Canadian goods — dairy, cosmetics and furniture among them — after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed. Washington also declared a total import ban on Canadian motorcycles, whey protein and alcohol. Canada answered with its own 50% “dollar-for-dollar” tariffs, and most provinces have banned the sale of U.S. alcohol in retaliation.
Canadian leaders disagree over bargaining power
Prime Minister Mark Carney struck an upbeat note Tuesday evening, telling reporters that U.S. negotiators “are asking less and they’re offering more” in recent discussions — days after Trump told reporters a trade deal was “very close” following a call with Carney. But Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s trade minister handling the U.S. file, said Wednesday that the midterm results won’t change anything in the short term, dismissing speculation about what the new Congress might do as “an interesting discussion at a faculty club luncheon.” “Our approach will not change and we don’t intend to speculate on the approach being taken by the Americans,” he said.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said Wednesday that the midterm results show Canada holds a stronger position in trade talks.
Why the midterms may not move the tariffs
A September survey by the Cato Institute found roughly 75% of Americans believe the tariffs have raised prices, and affordability was a leading concern for voters heading into Tuesday’s vote. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins clashed with the White House over the duties — winning removal of levies on road salt, refrigeration equipment and seaweed — before losing her seat to Democrat Troy Jackson. In Michigan, where auto manufacturing is deeply intertwined with Canada’s, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers; in Ohio, Senator-elect Sherrod Brown called the levies a “disaster.”
Still, Democratic control of Congress may not force Trump’s hand. His levies were largely enacted by executive order without congressional approval, and Trump told Fox News Tuesday night that he holds the “ultimate power” of the veto over any bill Congress passes. Some Democrats have supported tariffs in the past to protect American manufacturing jobs and could back keeping some in place. Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, now newly empowered, have both pushed in recent months to rein in the tariffs on Canada.
January 1 deadline looms
Trump has threatened to escalate further, warning he would raise tariffs on sectors including auto manufacturing as of 1 January. With talks back on and U.S. negotiators offering more, the standoff remains unresolved heading into that deadline.
