2023-07-10 04:18:48
The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) gave its forecast of when more intense rainfall will occur within the rainy season, due to the global El Niño and coastal El Niño events.
The executive president, Guillermo Baigorrea, maintained that the intensity of the rains, higher than a normal period, which are expected to be conditioned by the continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean due to El Niño, off the coasts of Piura and Ecuador, as is currently the case and which has caused an increase in temperature on the north and central coast of the country.
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The latest statement from Enfen (Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon), issued on June 17, anticipates that it is probable for the summer of 2024 high temperatures on the Peruvian coast and the occurrence of moderate to heavy rains, especially on the north coast and northern sierra.
In this regard, the Senamhi specialist, Kelita Quispe, commented that by increasing the probabilities that coastal El Niño and global El Niño last until the summer of 2024, there is a possibility that the rains will intensify and that the high temperatures, above the normal average, will continue, due to the warming of the sea surface temperature.
According to the latest Enfen statement, the probability of occurrence of coastal El Niño in the summer of 2024 went from 77% to 84%, and global El Niño went from 82% to 88%.
The global El Niño began in June and is most likely to be weak in magnitude during the winter in Peru, but its impact on the world is already beginning to be felt.
Finally, Baigorrea said that with this scientific information the various government entities work in coordination with various sectors to see what measures can be adopted to mitigate the impacts of El Niño.
When will the heavy rains be reported?
The Senamhi forecasts heavy rains from October or November. The head of the entity indicated that, in addition to the heavy rains on the north and central coast, it is expected that the rainfall will also reach the north-western highlands.
And in the south, a period of rain deficit (drought) is expected, especially in the Andean zone (regions of Cusco, Puno, Moquegua and Tacna).
High temperatures
At another time, the executive president of Senamhi confirmed that the high temperatures will continue this month on the north and central coast, with averages above normal for this time of year.
“The direct impact of this situation is that the presence of pests and diseases will be favored. Being warmer favors the reproduction of insects, and that will affect health and agriculture, “he said.
After mentioning that pests such as crickets and coffee rust have already appeared in the north, work will be done to present alternatives and recommendations to farmers.
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