Referendum on “Russian incorporation” in the controlled area, Russia is not ready to withdraw so easily
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(Yoichi Masuzoe: Scholar of International Politics)
On September 21, Putin issued a partial mobilization decree to send an additional 300,000 reservists to a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This is the first mobilization order since World War II. The move is explained as a way to save Russians in Ukraine who are being oppressed by neo-Nazis.
It also announced that the eastern and southern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia will hold referendums on joining Russia from 23-27. He called the area subject to the referendum “Novorossia (New Russia)” and emphasized that it was Russian territory.
Furthermore, President Putin has hinted at the use of nuclear weapons, stating, “If our territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our territory and our people.”
An unexpected Ukrainian counterattack has recaptured Kharkiv Oblast, and the Russian side is impatient. Seven months after the Russian invasion began on February 24, the war has reached a major turning point. I would like to discuss why this situation has arisen and how it will develop in the future.
decline in intelligence
Putin’s miscalculation is that the “special military operation” did not come to an end in the short term. The scenario was that the attack on the capital, Kyiv, would probably overthrow the Zelensky regime and establish a puppet government within a week.
However, this scenario did not work out. There are several reasons.
The first is that Russia’s intelligence capabilities were flawed. For several months, he repeatedly held military exercises in the border area and put pressure on Ukraine, but accurate information on Ukraine’s political situation and military capabilities had not reached Putin. Russian intelligence operatives and others deployed in the area should have reported on the problems associated with the military invasion, but the head of the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) only conveyed information that would please Putin. It seems