To some, the Maple Leafs panicked a few days ago by offering four draft picks, including a first-round pick, for veteran Ryan O’Reilly.
The 32-year-old (former) Blues captain is having a tough season with just 19 points in 40 games, a -24 record, and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
But anyone in the shoes of general manager Kyle Dubas would no doubt have done the same. Toronto hasn’t made it past the first round in the past six seasons. Another defeat in such circumstances will undoubtedly roll heads, including that of Dubas, in his last year of contract, and perhaps even that of president Brendan Shanahan.
The Leafs already know their opponents: the Tampa Bay Lightning, Stanley Cup finalists for the past three seasons, still formidable this year with a 35-17-3 record, sixth overall.
The pressure is high on the Leafs, even if forget how the formula of the playoffs is of an appalling cruelty for the formation of Toronto.
In the six first-round eliminations, Toronto has lost four times to teams positioned in the top eight overall, and three times to teams from the top 4. Of those opponents, only the Lightning last year weren’t in the top four overall. He was nevertheless the defending champion, ranked eighth in the regular season… and reached the Stanley Cup final for the third consecutive year.
And three times it took a seventh game for his opponents to advance to the second round, in 2022 against Tampa, in 2019 against Boston and the year before against those same Bruins.
Three of their six opponents since 2017 have also reached the Stanley Cup Final after beating Toronto in seven games, the Lightning in 2022, the Canadiens in 2021 and the Bruins in 2019.
O’Reilly isn’t having a great season, you have to admit. But he had 58 points the previous season. He especially has a reputation for shining in the playoffs, and he won the Conn-Smythe Trophy awarded to the most valuable player in the playoffs during the conquest of the Blues in 2019.
Not only has he amassed 49 points in his 50 series games with St. Louis since 2019, but his efficiency on defense will allow him to face the Lightning’s top line and he has posted a higher efficiency rating than 56% in face-offs every season since 2016 except this winter, still at an excellent 54%.
The first-round pick offered to the Blues is 26e rank. There may be small variations depending on playoff results, but he will remain a late-round pick, where the odds of getting a top player are around 20% at best. Toronto also gave up second-round picks in 2024, third-round pick in 2023 and fourth-round pick in 2025, but they also get Noel Acciari, an effective fourth-line center.
The acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly still evokes bad memories in Toronto. In April 2021, the Leafs got another captain, Nick Foligno, 33, from the Blue Jackets, in return for a late first-round pick, 24e in total.
Like O’Reilly, Foligno had started to slow down at the time of the trade. He was showing just 16 points in 42 games at Columbus. He didn’t do much better in Toronto and fell in action in the first round of the playoffs against the Canadiens and signed a contract as a free agent with Boston a few weeks later.
The Blue Jackets drafted defenseman Corson Ceulemans at 24e rank with this choice. The 19-year-old is in his second season at the University of Wisconsin, where he has 19 points in 29 games. He sits between fifth and seventh on the Blue Jackets’ list of top prospects and should try his luck in the pro ranks this spring or next. One or two seasons in the American League will probably be needed, so he could become an NHL player in 2025.
For Dubas and Shanahan, the priority remains the first round of the playoffs in 2023, not a hypothetical choice at the end of the first round. They will have been fired long ago when this young player is ready for the National League, in 2027 or 2028, if he is ever ready…
Will Doug Armstrong keep his choices?
By selling Ryan O’Reilly to Toronto, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong gets a second first-round pick, after the New York Rangers’ pick for Vladimir Tarasenko.
The Blues will be out of the playoffs after a 109-point season last year. Armstrong is not a fan of rebuilds and his core is still young. He could very well use these many choices to get players in their mid-twenties to accelerate the recovery of the team.
“I wish I had a crystal ball and gave you certainty, but I don’t,” Armstrong told reporters over the weekend. We could use these choices to draft players, bring them into our development process and see them have a good career eventually.
“But if we trade those picks, it won’t be for short-term fixes, but players 26 or younger under contract for multiple seasons. The fans come to see us play when we win and desert us when we lose. New Jersey, Buffalo and Detroit took five, six, seven years to rebuild. Los Angeles did it faster. I want to emulate the Kings. »
Armstrong may not have a crystal ball, but his plan is pretty clear…