2023-11-30 09:43:59
In a supermarket, in Toulouse, September 4, 2023. CHARLY TRIBALLEAU / AFP
The slowdown recorded in certain sectors weighed on French growth. Initially estimated to be low, but positive by INSEE, activity finally fell into the red in the third quarter. The final figures published Thursday, November 30 show a gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 0.1% between July and September, against a backdrop of a decline in household purchasing power. Inflation continues to slow. In November, the year-on-year increase stood at 3.4%, after 4% in October.
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Despite this downward revision of growth, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, indicated, Thursday, on France Inter to maintain his forecast for 2023 at 1% and at 1.4% for 2024. After a first quarter stagnating (0%), a more dynamic second (+ 0.6%) and the cold snap in the third quarter, the growth gain for France now stands at 0.8%.
Which basically means that to achieve Bercy’s objective, the fourth quarter will have to show growth of a “big” 0.6%. Achievable on the condition that the economy regains strength over the last three months of the year, which seems far from simple. “Basically, the diagnosis remains a little gray”estimates Nicolas Carnot, director of economic studies and syntheses at INSEE. “Activity remains sluggish and sluggish. » For its part, the Banque de France is betting on an increase in GDP of only 0.9% this year. And regarding 2024, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is banking on growth limited to 0.8%.
The business climate is getting darker
Business climate indicators, which worsened further in November, do not seem to give hope for a more dynamic end to the year. Household consumption, one of the main drivers of growth, since it represents half of GDP, fell further in October (− 0.9%), while purchasing power fell by 0 .2% per consumption unit (which takes into account the size of households) over the quarter, indicates INSEE.
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Note, however, that over the entire quarter, consumption remains positive (+0.6%). Constrained by an increasingly tight budget, the French are starting to dip into their savings. The household savings rate, a widely watched indicator because it constitutes a reserve for growth, increased from 17.9% in the second quarter to 17.4%. But it remains 2 points higher than the 2019 level.
Three sectors in particular explain the downward revision of growth in the third quarter: construction, IT services and transport services, “where the activity is less good than what we have been able to extrapolate”, underlines Mr. Carnot. Investment fell by 0.8% in construction in the third quarter, almost as much as for the whole of 2022 (−0.9%).
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