The opposition in Turkey won a major victory in Sunday’s local elections. The largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), not only retained the major cities in Turkey won in the 2019 election, but also significantly expanded the number of districts and settlements won. The center-left secular CHP also defeated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party, the ruling Islamist conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), at the national level, winning about 37 percent of all votes cast, compared to roughly 35 percent for the ruling AKP.
This result marks the opposition’s biggest electoral victory so far during Erdoğan’s more than twenty years of rule.
CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu is the mayor of Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey kept it by obtaining more than 51 percent of the votes, and in addition, it made significant progress in the city’s districts compared to the 2019 elections, winning about 25 out of 39 districts, 11 more than last time. The capital also remained under the control of the opposition Mansur Yavaş (also CHP), Yavaş beat his AKP opponent in Ankara by more than 60 percent and nearly 30 percent. The opposition also took the provinces of Burdur, Denizli, Uşak, Kütahya, Bursa, Kırşehir, Kırıkkale, Kilis and Adıyaman. This time, the CHP was able to beat the candidates of the ruling party not only in the traditionally secular big cities, but also in some of the more conservative Central Anatolian areas. It also won in areas where the AKP’s defeat was almost unthinkable in the past decades.
Retaining Istanbul could only hurt the AKP because this time İmamoğlu did not even win as a candidate of a broad coalition like in 2019, but practically alone, after the People’s Democratic Party (DEM) was formed from the Greens and the Socialists representing the Kurds, and also the nationalist IYI Party started with separate candidates.
“From tomorrow, Turkey will be a different Turkey. You opened the door to the rise of democracy, equality and freedom… You ignited hope at the ballot box”
– referred to the strategic importance of the victory in Ekrem İmamoğlu’s speech to his voters on Sunday evening.
A strategic defeat for Erdoğan
This local election meant much more to the aging leader of the AKP than the specific mayoral seats and local representative seats. In Turkey, a person can only be president for two terms at the moment, Erdoğan could only run in last year’s election with a technical trick, claiming that he started his first presidential term in the presidential system (operating with significant presidential power) established in 2018, so this cycle is the it doesn’t matter because of the new political system.
This restriction he would have liked Erdoğan to abolish it with a constitutional amendment, but for that he would need many more votes in the Turkish legislature than he currently has.
A significant election victory, or at least the recapture of the capital or Istanbul, could have enticed more moderate opposition representatives to join the AKP in order to form a constitutional majority, but with yesterday’s defeats, this opportunity was lost.
Since the CHP elected a new president in November 2023 in the person of Özgür Özel, the election victory also strengthens the new leadership, which was able to show success relatively early.
A further cause for concern for the AKP is that the newly emerging New Welfare Party (YRP), which is primarily trying to appeal to the voters of the ruling party, seems to be in several places successfully lured him over voters for their own candidates.
In addition, even though he moderated Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policy and adventurous foreign policy spectacularly after last year’s victory, inflation in Turkey has not been suppressed, which is causing more and more difficulties for the Turkish population. Food price inflation only in February increased by nearly 9 percentand in one year’s time, the price increase is already 71 percent.
In the coming years, the AKP will therefore have to fight with a significantly strengthened opposition and breakaway right-wing parties, while it is not really clear whether it has the opportunity to achieve a significant improvement due to the severe destruction of recent years in a catastrophic economic situation. As is known, the currency and debt crisis that broke out in 2018 hit Turkey in a situation where politicians had been pushed out of power for years and replaced by cadres absolutely loyal to the AKP. The currency of the deeply indebted country then began to weaken rapidly due to the policy of reducing the base interest rate, which was favorable to the business class loyal to the government, but which strongly accelerated inflation, which was further fueled by the president’s continuous interference in the operation of the country’s central bank. Confidence in the country was also undermined by Erdoğan’s hyper-aggressive foreign and domestic policies, which ultimately also contributed to the low flight of the lira and the subsequent economic decline.
In addition, as the stars are now, the right-wing party that has built up a reign of authority will be forced to give up the nomination of its strongman in 2028.
Cover image: MTI/Zsolt Szigetváry