Russia recently promised on Friday to restart energy supplies through the throttled Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline as soon as the turbine is operational again. It is not a question of imaginary repair work, but of scheduled maintenance.
“We completely reject any hints or direct reports that the Russian side is using gas or oil as a weapon for political pressure,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Russia is fulfilling all obligations under the treaties. “And above all, Russia is able to guarantee Europe’s full energy security.” But other signals had also come from the Kremlin in the past few weeks. And for around ten days no gas will flow through the Baltic Sea pipeline.
Nord Stream 1 will be shut down – for maintenance
The Canadian government wants to enable the delivery of the serviced Russian “Nord Stream 1” turbine to Germany. Canada will give “a temporary and revocable permit” to Siemens Canada, said Minister for Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson on Saturday. Officially, the pipeline is scheduled to be shut down on Monday through July 21 for maintenance work. Then no more gas flows.
July 21st as a critical date
Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler (Greens) expects that initially less gas will flow to Austria. This will also affect storage. Nevertheless, according to calculations by E-Control, the federal government’s storage target can still be achieved if Russia supplies natural gas in the agreed volume again after the maintenance, the minister said in a broadcast on Sunday.
The critical point in time is the restart of the pipeline, which is scheduled for July 21. “No one can predict today whether deliveries will be fully resumed afterwards. July 21 is therefore a critical date for the gas supply throughout Europe,” Gewessler emphasized.
However, “Nord Stream 1” only plays a subordinate role for direct gas deliveries to Austria. “Austria is mainly supplied via the pipeline system via the Ukraine. Nevertheless, due to the complete failure of deliveries via ‘Nord Stream 1’ due to the maintenance work, a significant drop in deliveries is also expected in Austria.
Habeck’s warnings
German Economics Minister Robert Habeck warned of a “nightmare scenario” on Sunday. The German government is trying to prepare for the worst with its measures in order to avoid exactly that, he said on Deutschlandfunk with a view to the consequences of a gas failure. In view of the sharp rise in gas prices, he also warned that there would be too much social division “without further political support”. Consumer Protection Minister Steffi Lemke (like Habeck from the Greens) called for a moratorium on imminent gas and electricity cuts in the case of unpaid bills in the “Bild am Sonntag”.
Germany could use more money for liquid gas
Habeck referred to the necessary mix of filling the gas storage tanks, rescuing the gas suppliers and savings for citizens, companies or in administrative buildings. He hinted on Deutschlandfunk that the 15 billion euros provided by the government for the purchase of more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) might not be enough to fill Germany’s gas storage facilities to the hoped-for 80 percent in October. The government may have to provide more money.
He criticized the fact that some gas suppliers are even selling gas from their storage facilities again, which is legal. “The problem is that the large storage facilities, which are partly owned by Gazprom and now held in trust, … are comparatively empty. So, the 63 percent average doesn’t tell us the whole story,” he said, referring to the current level.
Habeck also criticized the European requirements that, in the event of a gas shortage, savings should first be made by companies and finally by consumers. “I find that unsatisfactory. But it is the European legal norm and it has not been changed yet,” he said.
The Union, however, called on Habeck (Greens) to better prepare Germany for a gas shortage in the event of a total failure of the pipeline. “Companies and citizens rightly expect a plan from the government as to what will happen in an emergency,” said Jens Spahn, Vice President of the Union faction. German industry also demands gas safety.
Study: gas gap may not be large at all
The consequences of a delivery failure are anything but clear: A more recent joint diagnosis by several German economic research institutes, on the other hand, comes to the conclusion that even in the event of an immediate complete stop of “Nord Stream 1”, even in the worst case scenario, there is no longer a risk of gas bottlenecks this year and in the coming year as well only in less favorable scenarios.
The economists calculated 1000 combinations of 26 factors, as Stefan Kooths from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) explains. This simulates different scenarios. In the middle of the forecasts, the researchers see no more gas gaps this year or next year due to the full storage facilities. However, they do not give the all-clear.
High prices as a risk factor
However, even if there is enough gas, the prices will still be high. “Even if we don’t get into a gas emergency, gas will remain expensive,” said the head of the German Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, to “Focus”. The consequences of the current gas shortage in terms of price have not yet reached consumers. With a possible additional burden of 2,000 to 3,000 euros per family, there is a risk of “gas poverty”.
The President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher, warned of a “social ordeal”. Movements like the yellow vests in France are also possible in Germany, Fratzscher told the “Handelsblatt”.