Germany, Europe’s largest economy, confronts a heightened risk of gas shortages this winter as its underground storage facilities stand at historically low levels, according to industry experts.
The Initiative Energien Speichern (Ines), a German energy storage association, warned that current gas storage levels are insufficient to guarantee full supply during an abnormally cold winter.
Germany Faces Winter Gas Shortage Amid Storage Crisis
For extremely low temperatures, it will not be possible to guarantee full gas supplies, Ines stated. As of early November, German underground gas storage facilities were filled to only 61%, significantly below the level mandated by the Ministry of Economics. This shortfall is attributed to supply disruptions caused by the ongoing war in Iran, which has impacted global energy markets.
The association’s recent modeling projects that in the event of an extremely cold winter, similar to the one in 2010, Germany could face a monthly gas deficit of 6.6 terawatt-hours from January to March 2027.
This deficit is equivalent to the amount of gas Germany consumes in approximately one and a half days during the winter months. On individual days in January, the deficit could reach as high as 1.7 terawatt-hours, close to 40% of the country’s average daily gas consumption in January 2026.
These projections, however, are based on a low-probability scenario. For normal or mild temperatures, no supply issues are anticipated. The calculations already account for additional gas supplies from neighboring European countries and the full use of available liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal capacities.
The situation is compounded by rising gas prices in Europe. Benchmark futures for gas have exceeded 85 euros per megawatt-hour, with Dutch TTF futures, the European price benchmark, reaching 86.78 euros per megawatt-hour after a 2.4% increase. The price surge is driven by uncertainty regarding the end of the war with Iran and disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East.
The conflict with Iran has effectively removed nearly a fifth of the world’s LNG exports from the market, forcing Europe to compete with Asia for limited supplies.
This competition has pushed gas prices in both regions to their highest levels since 2022, more than tripling compared to the beginning of the year. While prices have recently eased slightly amid hopes for progress in peace talks following the U.S. midterm elections, they remain elevated due to constrained market supply.
The European Union’s overall gas storage levels have also fallen, currently at 74%, well below the five-year average of 90% for this time of year. This lower-than-normal storage, combined with the geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, has created a precarious situation for Europe as it heads into the winter heating season.
The Federal Network Agency of Germany, however, assesses the risk of a strained gas supply situation as low. The agency explains that due to additional import capabilities, the country is no longer directly dependent on achieving specific storage filling targets.
The stability of Europe’s gas supply this winter will largely depend on the swift restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly from Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. Until the geopolitical situation stabilizes, the threat of winter gas shortages and high energy prices remains a significant concern for Germany and the broader European region.
