Germany: stable industrial production in October

The manufacturing sector produced 0.1% less on a monthly basis in seasonally adjusted data, after a revised increase of 1.1% in September.

Industrial production remained stable in October, after rebounding in September, against a backdrop of war in Ukraine and the energy crisis which are weighing on the sector, according to official figures published on Wednesday.

The manufacturing sector produced 0.1% less over one month in seasonally adjusted data, after a revised increase of 1.1% in September, the Destatis institute said in a press release.

Over a year, industrial production remains at the same level, added the public body.

In detail, the production of consumer goods fell by 1.9%, while intermediate goods fell by 1.8%.

The production of capital goods was able to offset part of this fall, with an increase of 1.4%.

“The outlook for the industry remains (…) gloomy,” commented the Ministry of Economy in a press release on Wednesday.

German industry is weighed down by the war in Ukraine, which is causing disruptions in supply chains, rising costs and soaring energy prices.

The hardest hit are energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals, metallurgy, paper and glass.

These sectors saw their production fall by 3.6% over one month in October, and by 12.6% over one year, according to Destatis.

These figures “are further evidence of the gradual slide into recession for the last quarter,” comments Carsten Brzeski, analyst for ING.

The government expects a decline in Germany’s GDP from next quarter, and anticipates a recession of 0.4% in 2023 for Europe’s largest economy.

To relieve households and businesses, Berlin announced at the end of September the release of 200 billion euros to cap prices.

For the largest manufacturers, gas will cost 7 cents per kilowatt hour, within the limit of 70% of consumption, from 1 January. SMEs will benefit from a cap of 12 cents per kilowatt hour from 1is mars.

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