Germany: the labor market resists the crisis

The indicator continues its rise that began in November, following four consecutive months of plunge in the face of soaring inflation.

Germany’s unemployment rate held steady in December at 5.5% for the fifth month in a row as the labor market remained robust despite persistent inflation, the German Employment Agency said on Tuesday.

In 2022, “the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine – rising prices, insecurity, migration – have certainly left their mark on the German labor market. But given the magnitude of the charges, these are moderate,” said the president of the Federal Employment Agency (BA), Andrea Nahles, in a statement.

Unemployment, which stood at 5.0% at the start of the year, soared from June, as Ukrainian refugees poured into the labor market, before stabilizing at 5.5%.

“The number of unemployed has increased since June, but mainly due to Ukrainian refugees looking for work, rather than due to the deterioration of the economic situation”, comments Fritzi Köhler-Geib, chief economist of the German public bank KfW.

“So far, the labor market has survived the Russian aggression war and the energy crisis well” which poses a threat of recession for Germany this winter, she analyzes.

Adjusted for seasonal variations, the number of unemployed fell by 13,000 over one month in December

In raw data, the number of unemployed increased by 20,000 over one month, to reach 2.45 million, according to the organization.

For 2023, the labor market should show “robust development” and not suffer too much from the economic slowdown linked to the energy crisis which is particularly affecting German industry, assured Ms. Nahles during a press conference by telephone.

Two shadows remain on the table: “the loss of purchasing power of employees and the growing shortage of skilled labour”, notes Fritzi Köhler-Geib.

Due to inflation, real wages fell by 4% in the first three quarters of last year, the economist points out.

As for the shortage of skilled labour, it will increase further during the year, at the risk of slowing down the recovery, according to the same source.

Illustration of this need for new workers in a Germany with aging demography: employment reached its highest level in 2022 since the reunification of the country in 1991, the statistical office Destatis indicated on Monday.

The number of workers “whose workplace was in Germany” increased by 589,000 people (+ 1.3%) compared to 2021, exceeding the previous record by 292,000 people (+ 0.6%). , recorded in 2019.

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