Financial Center / Reported by Li Mingrong
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) misjudged the situation last year and raised interest rates by 17 yards from March to December this year. The “violent rate hike” caused the world to fall into severe inflation, global financial market turmoil, and economic recession. In this regard, Caixin Media Chairman Xie Jinhe said that it would be quite difficult to predict the high point of the Taiwan stock index next year. He also admitted that “investment will never have a standard answer.”
Xie Jinhe gave an example. I took a look at various investment institutions that predicted TSMC’s stock price at this time last year, and none of them got it right. At this time last year, the semiconductor industry was unprecedentedly prosperous, and there was a shortage of automotive chips. The German Minister of Economy came to ask for help. Representative industry players also said: AI and electric vehicles are everywhere. Everyone thinks that the semiconductor industry is still in short supply. Unexpectedly This year, the semiconductor industry has become a disaster. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once fell by 48.63%, and the stock prices of TSMC, AMD, and Nvidia have all been cut in half.
Xie Jinhe said that every year to the end of the year, there will be many different predictions in the market. Now, if you look back and compare them, the hit rate is not high. For example, Hong Kong investment banks predicted the Hang Seng Index last year, and none of them got it right, which is the most outrageous Deutsche sees 37,000, and the Hang Seng Index fell to 14,597 the worst. Last year, most people were optimistic about virtual currencies. Everyone was optimistic about the sharp rise of Bitcoin. No one thought that it would fall by more than 60% in the end. It is predicted that Tesla’s Barron’s investment will look at $2,000, but this year Tesla is also among the top companies with the worst decline.
Finally, Xie Jinhe revealed that at this time last year, global stock markets had risen to their highest point, inflationary pressures were on the horizon, the FED violently raised interest rates, the stock market plummeted, and the U.S. dollar index rose sharply. All going down, the long-term indicators of the stock market are at a low level, and the US dollar index is turning down from its peak. Perhaps the market is always born in the most pessimistic situation.
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