2023-08-13 14:16:46
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its monthly report on Friday August 11, which forecasts an increase in global oil demand in 2023, around 102.2 million barrels per day. It will be his “highest level ever recorded”, raises the agency. It will be driven by global demand, which has never been so strong.
According to the IEA, consumption is “ boosted by summer air travel, increased use of petroleum (fuel oil) to generate electricity, and surging Chinese petrochemical activity “. For the whole year, the global demand for black gold “expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) » compared to 2022“China accounting for more than 70% of this growth».
China now second largest oil consumer
Francis Perrin, research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris), explains that “the increase in global oil demand is a continuing trend” for several years, despite calls to reduce consumption in order to preserve the climate.
Indeed, “The post-pandemic recovery in economic activity is driving these record numbers, with global oil demand rising steadily since 2021. In addition, China is now the world’s second largest consumer of oil, and demand from all major emerging countries is increasing, while consumption from already prosperous economies is flat year on year,” explains Francis Perrin.
Producing countries drive up prices
The specialist reminds us that the supply of oil ” continues to increase”. On the other hand, its growth is lower than that of demand: the latter will amount to 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023. However, the planned production is only 101.5 million barrels per day. To support prices, several countries of the OPEC + alliance, an association of oil exporting countries, have also decided last month to reduce supply. It thus fell by 910,000 barrels per day.
The oil market is therefore likely to be somewhat wobbly this year. “Mechanically, oil prices will continue to rise, as has already been the case since the end of June. This is good news for oil companies and exporting countries, while importing states will suffer from the increase in the price of a barrel,” he analyzes. The United States took the decision to release part of their stocks, in order to limit fluctuations.
This imbalance could be corrected in 2024, according to the IEA. With the growing use of electric vehicles and the post-pandemic recovery weakening, the agency projects a slowdown in oil demand growth: It will slow down by 1 million barrels per day in 2024. But the peak of global consumption is not yet in sight.
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