Global warming – the chances of a white Christmas are falling

Global warming is also having a significant impact on the Christmas weather in Austria. “Of course there are large fluctuations from year to year, but in the long term the trend towards ever milder temperatures at Christmas is clearly recognizable,” says Alexander Orlik from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). “If you compare, for example, the average temperature on December 24th, 25th and 26th in the period 1961 to 1990 with the period 1991 to 2020, then the provincial capitals of Austria, for example, show a warming of around one to two and a half degrees.”

More and more often over 0 degrees and therefore less and less snow

Warming has made white Christmases much rarer. Because the temperature in the lowlands of Austria is more and more often above 0 degrees at Christmas. As a result, precipitation tends to fall more quickly than rain, or snow that has fallen melts more quickly.

(Info: For data of the provincial capitals see table below)

Usually only white every three to six years

“The chance of a white Christmas has fallen by 30 percent in Innsbruck, Salzburg and Graz in recent decades, by 40 percent in Bregenz, Linz and Klagenfurt, by 50 percent in St. Pölten and Vienna and by 60 percent in Eisenstadt,” says ZAMG climatologist Orlik.

Snow cover on December 24th, 25th or 26th has become relatively rare in almost all state capitals. The following applies to the last 30 years (climate period 1991-2020): Statistically speaking, Vienna, Eisenstadt, St. Pölten and Linz only have a solid snow cover of at least one centimeter every four to six years at Christmas. Bregenz, Graz and Klagenfurt are white on average every third year. The best chances are in Innsbruck and Salzburg, where statistically, Christmas is white every two to three years.

(Note: “Snow cover” is defined here as at least 1 centimeter of snow cover at more than 50 percent of the observation site.)

Christmas 1962 with 96 centimeters of snow in Innsbruck

If you are looking for Christmas snow records, you have to look far back in the data. The Innsbruck Airport weather station holds the Christmas record for all the provincial capitals with 96 centimeters of snow on December 24, 1962. The other snow records for the provincial capitals for Christmas are: 55 cm at Graz Airport on December 25, 1994, 50 cm in St. Pölten on December 24, 1969, 47 cm in Klagenfurt 1994, 40 cm in Salzburg on December 24, 1962, 39 cm in Eisenstadt on December 24, 1969, 47 cm in Vienna Mariabrunn on December 24, 1969, 26 cm in Bregenz on December 26, 1969 and in Linz (airport) is the Record snow depth 25 cm on December 25, 1969.

Records from almost -30 degrees to almost +20 degrees

The cold records are also far behind. In the Austria-wide evaluation of all ZAMG weather stations below 1400 meters above sea level, the cold record is -29.0 degrees in Tamsweg (S) in the night of December 26, 1944. 1962 was also extreme. Back then, the maximum(!) temperature on December 25 in Vils (Tyrol, Reutte district) was -19.8 °C. In Kitzbühel it was -27.9 °C in the night from December 24 to 25, 1962.

The Salzburg Airport weather station held the Christmas heat record for the whole of Austria with 19.1 °C on December 25, 2013.

Ups and downs before Christmas 2022

An exact forecast for the weather and snow conditions for Christmas 2022 is not yet possible. For the middle of next week, a very mild weather situation is currently emerging, with plus degrees even on many mountains. According to the current forecast, a cold front could bring significantly colder air to Austria shortly before the Christmas holidays.

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