Goldman Sachs Cuts 2027 Gold Price Forecast to $4,650 Amid Fed Rate Expectations

Goldman Sachs lowered its late-2027 gold price forecast to $4,650 per ounce, down 3.1% from $4,800, as expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes weigh on private investor demand.

Investing.com reported that the downward adjustment reflects a more difficult short-term environment driven by monetary policy. Despite the near-term headwinds, the bank anticipates a 16% rebound from current spot prices by December 2027 once the central bank initiates rate cuts.

Economists Project Additional Interest Rate Increases in March 2027

Economists at the firm now project a third 25-basis-point interest rate increase in March 2027, following a planned December 2026 hike already factored into previous models.

Financial markets priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate increase of 25 basis points for December, while some investors also evaluated the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point move, according to ANZ analysts who said that higher-than-expected inflation and economic resilience increased expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy.

Photo: Yahoo Finanza

Yahoo Finanza said that spot gold dropped below the $4,000 threshold on Thursday, November 12, 2026, touching $3,973.13 per ounce while U.S. gold futures settled at $3,978.57. Persistent U.S. inflation and comments from Federal Reserve officials catalyzed the downward shift in metal valuations.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee characterized October inflation data as “borderline troubling,” while colleague Anna Paulson pointed out that elevated price pressures extended beyond temporary factors. These remarks pushed two-year Treasury yields up by 18 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Precious Metal / Index	Recent Price / Level	Percentage Change
Gold Spot (per ounce)	$3,973.13	-0.4%
Gold Futures	$3,978.57	-0.6%
Platinum (per ounce)	$1,535.84	-0.2%
US Dollar Index	102.98	+0.1%
Palladium Spot (per ounce)	$1,034.06	+0.1%
Palladium Futures	$1,031.25	+0.1%

Central Bank Reserves Grew During the Third Quarter

UBP strategist Bernard Kinsella observed that rising risk aversion and a 12% increase in the VIX index provided underlying support for precious metals amid broader equity market volatility. Kinsella added that if central banks adjust rates less aggressively than markets currently price in, nominal and real yields could decline to levels highly favorable for gold. Kinsella also explained that “long-term yields have fallen in most developed markets, reflecting the sharp downturn in equity markets and the expectation of lower oil prices,” adding that energy quotations fell just above $90 per barrel, which could ease pressure on central banks to raise rates further in coming months.

Furthermore, Kinsella said that “the drop in nominal and real yields tends to be strongly correlated with inflows into ETFs; moreover, if central banks raised rates less than currently expected, this would be very favorable for prices.” Kinsella projected short-term movement in a narrow range around $4,000 to $4,200 per ounce, noting that “once central banks have provided greater clarity on terminal rate expectations, the upward pressure on longer-dated TIPS yields should ease, leaving room for a more marked rise in gold prices.”

Goldman Sachs prevede che il continuo accumulo da parte delle banche centrali sosterrà l’oro. The institution projects that private investment demand will return as monetary policy eases toward the end of next year, propelling prices toward the $4,650 target by December 2027.

Kinsella cautioned investors that “it is not a negligible risk: investors should keep in mind that the forward silence of Fed President Warsh could also leave room for a less restrictive stance, with the risk of a more marked rise in gold quotations.”

More on this story: Gold and Silver Prices Fall Over 4% Amid Global Economic Volatility · Spot Gold Rises 0.6% After US PPI Data Meets Expectations