These are two small letters, but they change (almost) everything. Of “pandemic”, the Covid, which is sweeping everywhere because of the wave linked to the Omicron variant, could soon become “endemic”, according to several experts. Last week, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) estimated that we will “towards an endemization of the virus”. “As immunity increases in the population – and with Omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity in addition to vaccination – we will quickly move towards a scenario closer to endemicity,” assured Marco Cavaleri, the head of vaccine strategy at the EMA. An endemic disease is a condition that is lasting and stable in a given place. Implied without harming the health system due to episodes of uncontrollable overheating.
Could this be the case in the near future with the Covid? The current trajectory of the epidemic in France could lead one to think so. Thus, the Institut Pasteur has just refined its forecasts, now relying on more optimistic assumptions than those envisaged a few weeks ago. “We are moving towards scenarios that remain very complicated for the hospital, but are not the hardest that could have arisen”, summed up researcher Simon Cauchemez to AFP.
Spain opens the debate
The peak of daily hospitalizations could be reached at the end of January and between 2,500 and just over 5,000. We would then exceed the spring 2020 record, but not for critical care admissions, which would be limited to 6,000. in total, compared to more than 7,000 then. Researchers are here applying the lessons of Omicron’s visit to South Africa and the UK. There, the infected people were less harshly infected than with Delta. And when hospitalization was necessary, it lasted less.
In total, the impact would be “potentially absorbable by hospital services, if we make an effort to reduce transmission”, estimated Simon Cauchemez. Efforts that have already been made, according to his colleague epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet. “The health disaster was avoided, in part thanks to the behavior of the French”, car « we could have had a much worse situation if there had not been, since the beginning of January, a collective effort ” who allowed the “reduction of the number of contacts”, indicated the researcher, Monday on France Inter. Which also relies on « very regular Covid epidemics during the winter phases, in the years to come”, but with lesser consequences, thanks to an immunity reinforced by vaccinations or infections. Very widely vaccinated, the Spain of the socialist Pedro Sanchez has indicated that it is working on a new model for monitoring the disease, around which it wants to open a debate at European level. This model would leave aside the accounting of each positive case and even forego testing in the event of minor symptoms. only doctors “sentinels” would be responsible for monitoring possible outbreaks, similar to what is practiced in France for the flu. “The Spanish decision, scientifically understandable, seems very early to me, judged on Monday Yves Coppieters, epidemiologist at the Free University of Brussels, in the cross. Assuming that future variants of Sars-CoV-2 will be benign like other coronaviruses that already infect humans and cause colds is a gamble. But who tells us that we will not see a new, more lethal variant arrive in the coming months? »