The Russian-Ukrainian war intensified, and Hon Hai (2317-TW) also conducts sand table deductions internally, conducts risk assessments, and deduces three possible scenarios: short-term ending, long-term resistance, and European and American participation in the war, and proposes relevant response plans for business, financial, and investment units.
According to Hon Hai’s internal analysis, the Russian-Ukrainian war will have four stages. The first stage is the disarming from February 24 to March 15, and the current situation of encircling Kyiv is the second stage; and the third stage is the Russian The army captures Kyiv, and three possible development scenarios will be derived.
Scenario 1: 70% chance of closing in the short term
Hon Hai believes that after Russia occupies Kyiv, it will support the pro-Russian regime, Ukraine will cease fire, the new government will accept all the conditions put forward by Russia, and then it will move to the fourth stage. Global risk sentiment has cooled, raw materials such as gold and crude oil, as well as the bond market,DollarThe index (DXY) will all fall in sync, and the global stock market will rebound by 15%.
In terms of the Hon Hai Group’s response plan, public institutions temporarily prepare less materials, and then actively purchase materials when the price of raw materials falls; financial units buy on ralliesDollarand investment units take advantage of the stock market decline to invest in good company targets.
Scenario 2: 25% chance of long-term protest in Ukraine
Time will stretch to several years, raw materials, bond market interest rates andDollarIndices will remain high, and the stock market still has room to fall; in addition to paying attention to the possibility of long-term customer demand decline, Hon Hai has established a long-termDollarPosition, prudent and reduce investment.
Scenario 3: Europe and the United States have a 5% chance of participating in the war
Hon Hai believes that the global risk sentiment will be high, crude oil, natural gas, grain, semiconductor materials, etc. will rise sharply, and even the chain will be broken.DollarThe index and gold rose sharply, but since Germany and France have advocated peace talks, the probability of occurrence is low.
If it evolves to this point, Hon Hai requires that in addition to setting procurement contracts at an appropriate price to stabilize the supply and reduce costs, the business side should also be careful of customers’ backsliding; the financial side will buy bigDollarAnd gold hedging, early borrowing of funds with low interest rates; investment units suspend investment.