As the market approaches the close of 2026, home completions and mortgage lending figures indicate marginal upward momentum in the housing sector, though output remains well short of pent-up demand. Completions between July and September rose 10.4% compared to the previous year.
Assessing the 2026 Housing Pipeline and Supply Realities
The broader construction pipeline shows almost 27,000 dwellings finished so far in 2026. Analysts project total completions will reach between 39,000 and 40,000 by the end of the year, improving upon the 36,000 recorded in 2025. Here is the math: while this represents a measurable acceleration, current output sits far below the 50,000 to 60,000 annual units required to clear a pent-up demand estimated between 250,000 and 300,000 homes. Consequently, the Government scrapped annual targets and instead said it wanted to see 300,000 homes built between 2025 and 2030, necessitating a substantial increase in annual output.
The Bottom Line
- Completions Growth: New home builds for Q3 rose 10.4% year on year, pushing total completions toward an expected 39,000 to 40,000 for 2026.
- First-Time Buyer Activity: Mortgage lending data reveals a 9% increase in first-time buyer loans, alongside a 7% rise in mover-purchaser drawdowns.
- Decelerating Price Growth: Annual property price inflation has moderated to 5%, down from 10% two years prior, as higher interest rates constrain buyer budgets.
Liquidity Metrics in Mortgage Lending and Secondary Listings
Beyond new builds, transaction data from the banks points to increased market liquidity. First-time buyer mortgages grew 9% year on year, reaching 22,600 loans issued so far this year. Simultaneously, mortgages utilized for home relocations increased by 7% year on year. This financial activity coincides with a slight recovery in older property inventories. MyHome listings reached 14,600 properties in September, marking a 12.5% year-on-year increase as the supply of new listings finally improves.
| Market Indicator | Current Metric (2026) | Prior Period Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 Completions | Up 10.4% YoY | 36,000 total (2025) |
| First-Time Buyer Mortgages | 22,600 loans (Up 9% YoY) | N/A |
| September Listings (MyHome) | 14,600 properties (Up 12.5% YoY) | N/A |
| Property Price Inflation | 5% annual growth | 10% annual growth (two years ago) |
Interest Rate Pressures and Moderating Price Growth
Price appreciation has cooled significantly alongside shifting monetary policy. Two years ago, property values climbed at a rate of 10% annually; that increase has now slowed to 5%. Economists say it will decelerate further to 3% or 4%. No analyst is predicting a decline in property values, as buyer demand stays robust and Central Bank regulations have stopped financial institutions from over-extending credit. Over recent months, the European Central Bank raised interest rates from 2% to 2.5%, and an additional rate hike is anticipated in December. For many buyers it has reached the point where affordability is now at or beyond their limit.
Structural Policy Shifts and Industry Challenges
To incentivize investors, the Government has implemented major policy adjustments by modifying construction regulations, lowering the VAT rate on brand-new apartments, and easing rent regulations. While the construction industry has welcomed these measures, opposition parties have been critical of these steps. It comes as homeless numbers hit a record of 17,885 people in emergency accommodation. Sustaining higher output faces external headwinds, including higher inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty which may make investors hesitant before financing new projects.
According to Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers and former member of the State’s Housing Commission, the Government must pull multiple policy levers to accelerate progress. He said these include “continuing fiscal supports for the social housing sector and home ownership” and “faster progress on rezoning of residential land”. Mr O’Leary also calls for a “coordinated response” on the provision of utilities such as water and electricity connections to ensure sites can be developed. In addition, he said there needs to be further work to reform the planning system.
