2023-06-01 00:18:44
The White House and the leaders of Congress are running against time to guarantee its approval this week, to avoid a “catastrophic default”, but how does this situation in the country of Uncle Sam affect the price of the dollar in Peru.
Gestión.pe He spoke with a specialist who gave us insights into what will happen with the green currency.
The chief economist of BBVA Research, Hugo Pereastated that the risk that a “catastrophic default” could mean for financial markets globally has been reduced, given the agreement that is expected to be made official between the Democrats and Republicans.
“The debt limit has been suspended for two years and an agreement has been reached to establish ceilings for discretionary spending, as they say there. By 2024 spending will be flat and by 2025 it can only go up to 1%”, these are the main points of the agreement, Perea explained.
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He observed that, paradoxical as it may seem, during the last days there was demand for dollars and the currency showed some strength. “It leaves a little more room for monetary policy to continue to keep interest rates at the levels they have reached. Even, markets are looking at a higher probability that at the next meeting in June the Federal Reserve could eventually raise it”, he explained.
When asked if the price of the dollar will rise, the head of BBVA Research indicated that a good part is already incorporated into the price of the dollar locally and globally. “The markets value assets and currencies considering that type of information, if there is any additional correction it will not be very sensitive,” he said.
Perea indicated It is not ruled out that the currency could be above S/ 3.70 or S/ 3.75 at the end of the year.
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Juan Carlos Odar, economist at Phase Consultores, He pointed out that although the agreement is not concluded, it will appear to come to fruition. “In principle, it should translate into a strengthening of the dollar,” as uncertainty is reduced, he added.
He added that this will put upward pressure on the exchange rate, since we are facing a stronger currency, after stressing that everything will depend on how the markets react to this principle of agreement and see how the dollar reference evolves.
odar, observed that the dollar in recent days has stopped falling and is circling in a range of S/ 3.65 and S/ 3.70. “Probably the level where the dollar begins to stabilize would tend to be a little higher. We would probably be talking about one more exchange rate in the order of S/ 3.70 to S/ 3.75″, explained the economist from Phase Consultores.
He added that the price pressure of the currency would be seen with greater emphasis between Thursday and Friday.
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Meanwhile, Jorge Carrillo Acostafinance expert at Pacífico Business School, it coincided that once the uncertainty dissipated, the green currency would be strengthened more. “The exchange rate could go up a bit,” he noted. But what would happen if the agreement is not reached?
Carrillo Acosta said that if the debt payment becomes complicated, the dollar would weaken and the sun would strengthen, while a greater number of investors would look at our country, which would allow a greater income of dollars.
Although products that come from abroad or use imported inputs would drop in price, exporters, those who receive remittances, those who earn as well as those who have savings or investments in dollars would be affected.
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How does the increase in the price of the dollar affect Peru?
Juan Carlos Odar stated that it must be taken into account that if the price of the dollar rises, it will be lower than it was even a year ago. “It’s a rise from a relatively low level,” he noted.
However, he indicated that for those who have debt in dollars, credit will be more expensive. “The message is always that one borrows in the currency that earns, otherwise he is exposed to exchange rate volatility,” he noted.
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