Tropical Storm Ian was expected to increase in intensity on Sunday over the warm waters of the western Caribbean. But from South Florida’s perspective, the forecast track for the future hurricane shows a more favorable trend.
Ian is expected to become a major hurricane, and everyone in South Florida should be monitoring it.
However, since Friday a greater consensus has developed among forecast models that Ian will pass near or over western Cuba and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps more than 100 miles west of Key West. .
While there may be further adjustments to the forecast track over the next several days, the chances and conditions of a hurricane reaching the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metropolitan area have decreased.
For Miami, the chance of sustained tropical storm force winds was reduced from 40 percent to 30 percent. While in Key West, the chance of hurricane-force winds was cut in half from 20 to 10 percent. That’s because the National Hurricane Center continued to make westward adjustments to Ian’s forecast future track.
Saturday’s forecasts for what could happen next week have a hurricane passing 150 miles west of Key West on Tuesday night and more than 200 miles west of Miami on Wednesday.
For the Cayman Islands, where a Hurricane Watch was already in place, trends on Saturday were also favorable. Tropical Storm Ian had continued to move directly west rather than northwest, giving hope to those islands that perhaps there was a chance Ian’s core would miss them. But it’s going to get pretty close, and a Hurricane Warning still seems almost certain.
Cuba’s larger population centers could also feel better this weekend. While the province of Pinar del Río on the western tip of the island still needs to prepare for hurricane conditions on Monday, the possibility of Ian slipping through the Yucatan Channel is still on the rise.
Numerous scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for the weekend in South Florida, especially in the afternoons, thanks to higher humidity and a stagnant front near Lake Okeechobee. Monday through Wednesday will see even more widespread rain and some gusts depending on how far west future Hurricane Ian passes.
If Ian’s system turns northeast to cross central or northern Florida next week, some of the showers and thunderstorms, even as far south as Miami, could produce strong gusty winds. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in some of those outer rainbands, so we’ll have to remain vigilant.
However, compared to initial forecasts for Ian, South Florida is certainly feeling better and more upbeat this weekend. However, other parts of the Sunshine State may still face a major hurricane next week and will need to begin preparations no later than Monday.