With the help of private military companies, the Russian elite want to protect themselves for a time after Vladimir Putin. Experts warn of “chaos” in Russia.
Moscow – It is difficult to imagine a Russia without Vladimir Putin at the head of government after more than 20 years. But due to the stagnating “special operation” in Ukraine, a future without the native of St. Petersburg seems more and more likely. Because what was intended as a quick undertaking in the neighboring country has developed into a war that has now been going on for over a year – with global consequences.
So it is hardly surprising that the Russian elites want to keep their flock safe and are already taking care of the future. The former US Lieutenant General Mark Hertling warned on Saturday (March 11) in an interview with Newsweekthat private military corporations will “contribute to the chaos” if the government around Putin should “collapse”.
On Twitter Hertling quoted Eastern Europe expert Sergei Sumlenny, who wrote that “companies like Gazprom, Rosneft and others are starting their own private military companies.” The “Russian elites” are preparing for “a scenario of military defeat” and a corresponding power vacuum, Sumlenny tweeted.
Putin’s power vacuum: private militias should also serve for protection
The oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin shows that building a private army is possible. The 61-year-old, also known as “Putin’s cook” because of his gastronomic past, currently commands his private militia, the Wagner Group, in the Bachmut region. For months, the mercenaries in the Ukraine war have been acting as a kind of Russian shadow army. However, Prigozhin put a stop to the political ambitions he was accused of – at least in his own country. In Ukraine, on the other hand, he very well wants to “run for president”.
“Private military companies anticipate the collapse of Russia. Either for protection or they see themselves as Putin’s protection or competition,” former US General Ben Hodges also said Newsweek. The bottom line is that there is “a lack of a coherent military structure”, which has repeatedly undermined success in Ukraine.
Fall of Vladimir Putin: An upheaval from which nobody benefits?
Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at the think tank Defense Priorities, said Newsweekthat in the end, however, will all be just speculation. “The truth is, we have no way of knowing how vulnerable he is, or what a post-Putin Russia will be like, and what groups and individuals will shape its future.”
However, it is also clear that “Russia, with its 11 time zones, is by far the largest country in the world and has thousands of nuclear weapons”. An upheaval in Moscow could lead to results “that nobody wants or from which nobody benefits” – Menon considers the transition to a real democracy to be unlikely.
These are fears that Emmanuel Macron also had at least once. Last June, the French President said not to “humiliate” Putin in order to preserve the chance of a possible diplomatic solution. In February, he told French media that Russia should be “defeated but not crushed.” (nak)