"If you give weapons to China and Russia, the war situation may change... For now, be cautious"

delivery time2023-03-04 06:00

Restraining from the risk of deteriorating relations with the US and Europe… If the situation worsens, support may be pressured

Russian army self-propelled artillery

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(London = Yonhap News) Correspondent Yoon-Jeong Choi = China has the power to change the tide of war in Ukraine by providing weapons to Russia, but an analysis suggests that it is a prudent stance.

The British Economist said in an article on the 2nd, “Chinese weapons can revive Russia’s failing war,” that if China sends arms to Russia, the course of the war may change.

The Economist made this remark, emphasizing that China is the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter and, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, seven of the world’s top 20 defense companies are Chinese companies.

Regarding the report that China is considering supplying shells to Russia, The Economist said that although China’s shell stockpiles and quality are not well known, it will be enough to solve the Russian shell shortage crisis.

Shells are a deciding factor in the war in Ukraine, according to The Economist, and both Russia and Ukraine are scouring the world for stocks.

But Russia has nowhere else to turn for help other than China. Belarus has already given away all of its reserves, and North Korea has provided some, but it is wary of supply depletion and Iran has little to give.

The Economist diagnosed that China also has reasons to support Russia.

According to The Economist, China spoke of limitless friendship with Russia weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, and some want to divert US energy from the Indo-Pacific to Europe.

In addition, China has been importing Russian military technology, but using this opportunity, it can balance bilateral relations in the field of defense.

Professor Michael Raska of the Rajaratnam Graduate School of International Relations in Singapore said, “In exchange for helping Russia evade Western sanctions by sending cutting-edge parts needed for unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles, Russia may receive related technologies such as the RD-180 rocket engine, submarines and fighter jets.” The Economist reported that he said yes.

But there are reasons to be restrained. Supporting Russia would result in the loss of its neutral mediator status, worsening relations with the United States and entailing backlash from Europe.

The United States and Europe are strongly warning that support for lethal weapons is crossing the ‘red line’.

China is now showing a cautious attitude.

The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security, Josef Borrell, said that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said at a meeting on the 18th of last month that he would not send arms to Russia. US President Joe Biden also said that China does not appear to actively send weapons to Russia.

However, the Economist diagnosed that if Russia becomes desperate on the battlefield in the spring and summer, strong pressure will be placed on China’s current attitude.

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