Residents in Kenya’s informal settlements face severe weather as regional forecasts warn of an incoming El Niño weather phenomenon during the final months of 2026.
Agnes Shikoli points to a mark halfway up the six-foot corrugated iron wall of her home in Kibera, marking where floodwaters reached in March. Her house sits just a couple of metres from the Ngong River in Nairobi, leaving her family vulnerable as the short rainy season begins.
“It flooded up to here in March,” Shikoli said.
More than 60 people died nationwide in rains earlier in the year. That total included Shikoli’s 58-year-old sister Beatrice Khalayi, who was electrocuted when her house flooded. Cleanup crews shovel garbage from the riverbed under the Climate Worx programme, an initiative coordinated by the office of President William Ruto to rehabilitate Nairobi’s rivers.
“When I see a picture of her, I feel uneasy, that’s why I keep it far from me, so I don’t see it,” Shikoli said of her late sister.
Forecasters point to a temperature difference in opposing parts of the ocean often called the “Indian Niño”—which is similar to its Pacific equivalent—creating conditions that experts are concerned about. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development warned in September of an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño from October to December 2026.
Nairobi’s infrastructure struggles to cope with rapid urban growth. According to Brumwell Simiyu, the existing drainage system was built 30 years ago for about 2.5 million residents, whereas the city now handles roughly 7 million people during the day and 5.5 million at night.
An investment of up to $192m (£143m) is needed to completely overhaul the sewerage and drainage networks, Simiyu noted. Under moderate projections, approximately 5,000 households or about 20,000 people may be at risk, with those displaced slated for relocation to 167 designated holding grounds stocked with relief supplies.
Regionally, the International Organization for Migration warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year due to floods. Across the border in Somalia, the national disaster management agency reported that 1.2 million people face displacement risks from extreme weather.
“They can fall on us, or the water can drown us,” Shikoli said of her flood-prone dwelling.
Council officials have advised residents to evacuate riverbanks until the rains pass, but Shikoli earns only $2 (£1.5) a day selling fruit and groundnuts from a small roadside stall.
