2023-12-28 11:31:43
© NOAA
Regions already affected by climatic shocks will be doubly affected. Humanitarian organizations, including Action Against Hunger, are preparing for an increase in hunger, particularly in rural and agriculture-dependent communities. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, estimates that 110 million people in 30 countries will need food assistance by early next year.
Next year could be the hottest year on record. Climate resilient solutions are therefore more important than ever. Around the world, smallholder farmers are bracing for the storm.
What will be the impact of El Niño in Central America?
In Central America, the livelihoods of millions of farmers depend on their crops. El Niño has already begun to dry out fields and wilt crops, threatening farmers who lack irrigation systems. Rural towns are particularly vulnerable and already battling unpredictable weather conditions.
Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Honduras are in the Corredor Seco region, which could face severe devastation in the coming months. Below-average rainfall has already impacted staple grains such as beans and corn, and FEWS NET predicts that up to 1.5 million Guatemalans will need food assistance by April 2024 .
© Lys Arango
In Guatemala, grain producers are particularly worried about their next harvests. The most forward-thinking start planting in early spring rather than mid-summer, the usual planting season. But their efforts to anticipate storms are often in vain.
Felix Ramirez Suchite, a grain producer in eastern Guatemala, is one of many farmers who will harvest between 40 and 90 percent less than in previous years, which he says “will not be enough to feed the family all year “.
Prices are skyrocketing, with staple foods such as beans becoming as expensive as meat. In rural areas, agriculture is the only source of income for many people. El Niño will cause them to lose more than one harvest season. Most of them have to set aside more money to buy new seeds, as the quality of the harvested grains is not sufficient to replant them.
Millions of households in Central America are engaged in small-scale agriculture, with their main livelihoods typically growing staple grains and seasonal work, for example on coffee plantations, for income. export. El Niño will put many of them at risk.
What will be the impact of El Niño in South America?
In Central America, the drought period is expected to end this year, but in 2024, heavy rains will fall on South America.
© Dennis Zevallos
Peru
In March, Cyclone Yaku brought torrential rains that destroyed homes and buildings across the country, leaving many Peruvians with nothing.
Today, El Niño puts more than 14 million people at high risk of heavy rains in the north. In the south, more than a million people will be affected by drought. Certain sectors, such as fishing, are strongly affected, with rising ocean temperatures forcing fish to migrate. Inflation drives up food prices.
Colombia
In Colombia, precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 20%. Lack of water carries many risks, including a lack of sanitation and an increase in epidemics and undernutrition. Agricultural fields will dry up, livestock will die, hydroelectric power will be limited, and tropical diseases may increase. Dengue, malaria and Zika can be exacerbated by limited health services and lack of access to rivers for some communities. The food security of 22 million people across the country will be directly affected.
The region’s indigenous populations, such as the Wiwas of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, are particularly struggling. The Wiwas live in rural northern Colombia and have gone up to eight months without a single drop of rain. In the midst of a drought, the community prepares by storing what little food they have left and anticipating dangerous outbreaks of water-borne diseases such as diarrhea, which mainly affects young children.
“Crops are suffering the consequences of climate change. Excess heat and rain weaken them, trees fall, crops rot and food becomes scarce,” explains Lejandrina Pastor Gil, a Wiwa leader, who adds that in this difficult time, people are forced to sell or eat their animals.
The rivers dry up and the community must look for other sources, such as mountain springs. Young girls are forced to take long and tiring walks to fetch water. On their way, they face attacks, dehydration and exhaustion.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, El Niño impacts water supply, hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and food production, and national nutrition. 90% of the population lives in urban areas and depends on markets, most of which sell imported food products. In the coming months, these markets will face shortages, and prices of agricultural products will skyrocket. Rural farmers, on the other hand, will face insufficient rainfall and struggle to feed themselves and their communities.
© Aneri Nihalani
What will be the impact of El Niño in Southeast Asia?
In Southeast Asia, El Niño typically causes drier-than-average conditions, curbing precipitation and leading to the threat of drought.
Around 90% of the world’s rice is grown and consumed in Asia. As a staple food for more than half of the world’s population, it is one of the most important crops to ensure global food security. But it is a semi-aquatic crop that requires a lot of water and generally thrives in areas with high humidity. El Niño threatens its production.
Southeast Asian countries have begun to impose restrictions on the export of rice, leading to higher prices for countries that rely on imports. El Niño reduces the size of corn harvests in the Philippines, slows hydroelectric production in Vietnam, leading to power outages, drops coffee bean yields by up to 20% in Vietnam, curbs oil production of palm in Malaysia and Indonesia, prevents the harvest of sugar cane in Thailand and much more.
Thailand
Rainfall has decreased significantly across Thailand in recent months, both due to climate change and the El Niño phenomenon. According to August estimates, the main rice-growing regions of the country were expected to 40% decrease precipitation. Rice production in the country could decline by 6 %which is not negligible for the third world rice exporter. Last year, Thailand exported more than seven million tonnes of rice to countries around the world.
Farmers are scrambling to find climate-resilient options to save their crops and combat drought. The government began to use ” cloud seeding ”, a weather modification strategy that involves injecting different substances into clouds by plane to increase precipitation. Dry conditions are expected to last until at least February 2024.
Local campaigns encourage everyone to save water, and farmers to find ways to conserve it while preserving their livelihoods. The inhabitants of rural areas of Thailand fear they will no longer be able to feed themselves and their families. Since the rain stopped falling regularly, farmers have struggled to maintain hope. Some are in debt and entirely dependent on government aid. Yet, out of pride and tradition, they continue to tend their rice fields with dedication, praying every day for rain.
Inde
India accounts for more than 40% of global rice trade. The country’s rice fields rely heavily on monsoon rains, which provide 70% of the water needed for healthy and thriving crops. But this year, the monsoon rains were the lowest since 2018.
In India, many farms in rural areas lack irrigation systems. Farmers depend on monsoon rains to replenish their stocks. However, recently they have faced erratic storms, prompting the government to ban the export of certain types of rice. Due to low rice yields in India, Thailand and Vietnam, prices began to increase, by up to 20% in the latter two countries. Some people even started stockpiling out of desperation.
And rice is not the only crop at risk. As long as the country remains dry, prices of basic foods will continue to skyrocket. In the coming months, India could also impose restrictions on wheat and sugar exports.
© Aneri Nihalani
Indonesia
The Indonesian government has issued emergency alerts in several regions where fires similar to those which destroyed more than 8 million hectares in Canada in summer are likely to occur. Many forests and bogs are hotspots. People have been warned that fields are at risk of burning and that smog and haze could take over the sky. In the past, severe forest fires have caused respiratory problems in millions of people in Indonesia. In Singapore and Malaysia, the population was recommended to avoid going out as much as possible and to stock up on masks, air purifiers, food and water.
What will be the impact of El Niño in Africa?
The consequences of El Niño could be devastating for many African regions. In some areas, drought will destroy crops, leading to the death of livestock and widespread undernutrition. In other countries, severe flooding will destroy entire villages. Across the continent, El Niño will threaten the livelihoods of millions of people.
Southern Africa
Rainfall is expected to decrease across most of southern Africa, including Angola, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Shortages of food crops such as corn are likely. Many countries will then be forced to import them, which will increase inflation.
Water shortages and rising prices will only worsen socio-economic conditions across southern Africa. Conflict between neighboring communities could arise, with farmers forced to compete for pastures and water sources.
© Abel Gichuru
Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa will probably experience an increase in precipitation. Indeed, the region has faced one of its worst droughts in more than seven decades. El Niño could therefore bring much-needed rain to the country and alleviate some of the effects of the drought, which threatens the lives of many people.
But this change is not only positive. Indeed, showers could flood parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia. The phenomenon is also likely to cause flash floods, landslides and mudslides, destroying homes, hospitals and crops. It will also damage important infrastructure such as roads and bridges.
West Africa
In West Africa, El Niño poses a major threat to an essential crop: cocoa. This crop is very sensitive to weather changes, and very high temperatures are expected in the region. Dry conditions can cause pest outbreaks and diseases affecting cocoa pods, threatening the livelihoods of farmers in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Together, the two countries represent 58% of global cocoa production. The industry is set to take a major hit, with cocoa being used in the making of chocolate, cosmetics, skincare products and more.
West African farmers will be forced to adapt to avoid facing insurmountable poverty: in Ghana, cocoa profits represent 70 to 100% of cocoa producers’ income.
© Toby Madden
What is Action Against Hunger doing to fight El Niño?
In total, El Niño is expected to impact the agricultural yield of 25% of the world’s cultivated land. The planet is already warmer than it has ever been due to climate change, and El Niño will only make this situation worse.
Action Against Hunger teams work to provide vulnerable communities with the tools needed to overcome crises by raising awareness about water treatment, healthy hygiene practices, resource conservation and management. agricultural.
We work closely with families, distribute multi-use allowances, install water tanks and solar-powered irrigation systems, repair existing water systems and help local authorities strengthen their plans emergency response. We form community health committees, strengthen irrigation and rainwater harvesting systems, and teach farmers to plant, harvest, and maintain climate-resilient crops.
We will also continue to strengthen our El Niño-focused early warning technologies, such as SURF-IT, which we use to predict tidal waves in Bangladesh. We are doing everything we can to prepare communities for crises, as well as provide them with the tools they need to maintain their food security.
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