Impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Africa will only owe its salvation to African solutions

#Ivory Coast : Africa is hit hard by the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Undermined by food shortages and inflation, the continent is fine-tuning solutions to reduce its food dependence. The States and the AfDB are advancing their solutions.

Although the war between Russia and Ukraine is taking place thousands of kilometers from Africa, the fact remains that the continent is bearing the brunt of the impact of this crisis, particularly on crucial aspects such as the energy and food. Two areas in which shortages and price spikes are observed almost everywhere in Africa. International institutions are increasing alerts on the risk of acute food crises in many countries, aggravated by drought in many regions. This is the case for certain foodstuffs, such as wheat and flour, necessary for the production of bread.

It must be said that the fall in the world supply of wheat from Russia and Ukraine, which account for 35% of world trade in this cereal, the ban on wheat exports by the Indian authorities and the droughts in many producing countries have caused shortages that have exponentially increased the price of wheat in recent months. Remember that India, the world’s second largest wheat producer behind China, has decided to reserve its production for its population of 1.4 billion consumers.

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As a result, across Africa, food prices are skyrocketing and shortages of certain products are emerging. The increases particularly concern wheat flour, oils, pasta, animal feed, etc. This, despite the actions taken by the authorities to mitigate the effects of imported inflation: subsidies, reductions and even elimination of certain taxes on imports… And without a more abundant supply of agricultural products and fertilizers , the situation could be catastrophic for Africa in the months, if not weeks, to come.

African countries, operators and institutions have decided to act by betting on several variables. In the immediate future, aware that without a significant increase in the supply of agricultural products, African countries will be severely affected by the food crisis, the African Union has mandated its President, Macky Sall, to travel to Russia and Ukraine in order to obtain the opening of corridors to facilitate the export of agricultural products, in particular wheat and fertilizers, from the two countries to the rest of the world, and particularly to Africa, which depends heavily on them.

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For their wheat needs, 16 countries comprising 40% of the continent’s population depend up to 56% on Russia and Ukraine. These include Eritrea (100%), Somalia (90%), Seychelles (90%), Democratic Republic of Congo (85%), Egypt (80%), Madagascar (75%), Benin (70%), Congo (65%) or Rwanda (56%). Taking into account other less dependent countries, a total of nearly 700 million people will be directly affected by the wheat shortage.

But the request from Moscow and kyiv to facilitate wheat exports to Africa can only have a limited impact on the continent’s food security, knowing that it will be difficult for Ukraine to export its cereals because of the conflict that destroyed some of its infrastructure. The only viable and sustainable alternative therefore remains food sovereignty, which involves agriculture that favors food crops (wheat, rice, soybeans, corn, etc.).

In this context, several countries now seem determined to give more importance to their agricultural sector in order to ensure their food security, aware of the risks that food crises can entail. The “food riots” of the late 2000s are still fresh in the memories of the continent’s leaders who, moreover, took measures to alleviate inflation and food shortages. Almost everywhere in Africa, we are rethinking agricultural policies to move towards greater food self-sufficiency.

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It is in this perspective that the initiative of the African Development Bank (AfDB), which seems capable of changing the situation, is inscribed. The Pan-African financial institution has decided to make a full commitment to reduce the continent’s dependence on many products such as wheat, corn, rice and soybeans. It thus announced, on the eve of its General Assemblies which are being held from May 23 to 27, 2022 in Accra, Ghana, to invest more than 1.5 billion dollars in 2 years to finance 20 million small farmers in their providing certified seeds and fertilizers needed to increase agricultural production on the continent.

“The AfDB will provide fertilizer to smallholder farmers across Africa over the next four agricultural seasons, using its leverage with large manufacturers of fertilizers, loan guarantees and other financial instruments,” says the AfDB. institution in a press release. These supports will benefit more than 20 million smallholder farmers across the continent with the aim of accelerating the production of 38 million tonnes of food, a $12 billion increase in food production in just two years.” Among the agricultural commodities targeted are wheat, rice, soybeans and maize. AfDB support should thus enable the production of 11 million tonnes of wheat, 18 million tonnes of corn, 6 million tonnes of rice and 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans.

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This AfDB support comes in a context marked by the Russia-Ukraine crisis which is depriving Africa of more than 30 million tonnes of foodstuffs and which has also led to a surge in fertilizer prices, which have increased by 300% since then. the beginning of the year. Through this initiative, the AfDB wishes to quickly fill the agricultural deficit that could result from the conflict if it continues. “If this deficit is not filled, food production in Africa will fall by at least 20% and the continent could lose more than 11 billion dollars in food production value”, underlines the AfDB. It should be noted that this is the first concrete response from the AfDB, one of the 5 priorities set by its President, the Nigerian Akinwumi Adesina, is dedicated to “Feeding Africa”.

In addition, for the AfDB, the establishment of a fund of 1.5 billion dollars to boost agricultural production over the next two years is only a first step in its objective to ensure better food security. from the continent. “A five-year ramp-up phase will follow the establishment of the African Emergency Food Production Facility, which will last for two years. It will build on previous achievements and strengthen self-sufficiency in wheat, maize, and other staple crops, while expanding access to agricultural fertilizers”, underlines the AfDB, adding that “the five-year phase will make it possible to provide seeds and inputs to 40 million farmers”.

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For the AfDB President, “Aid cannot feed Africa. Africa does not need to ask for alms. Africa needs agricultural seeds and mechanical harvesters to harvest locally produced abundant foodstuffs. Africa will feed itself with pride, because there is no dignity in begging for food.”

Indeed, Africa has all the assets to become the breadbasket of the world. These vast unexploited agricultural lands estimated at more than 60 million hectares and its dense water networks with 17 major rivers and 160 lakes give the African continent a strong agricultural potential. Unfortunately, the low exploitation of this potential means that more than 80% of the basic food products consumed in Africa are imported for a bill of more than 60 billion dollars, according to data from Cnuced in 2020.