While Europe is suffering from the consequences of the break with Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 20222, the Russian economy is weakening but withstanding the shock. Despite Western sanctions that have been in place for almost a year, the Russian economy has not collapsed. According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published on 31st January, Russia certainly fell into recession last year but the fall in GDP is relatively modest (-2.2%), far from the IMF forecasts made in spring 2022 which anticipated an 8.5% fall in Russian GDP in 2022. Above all, the Russian economy should not fall any lower and start to rise again with a small increase of 0.3% in 2023 (i.e. slightly below the growth outlook for the euro zone set at +0.7% in 2023) then an increase of 2.3% in 2024. Growth which would then be better than that of the euro zone which will only rise by 1, 6% according to the IMF.
Sanctions occidentales
Russia holds the shock in spite of the Western sanctions, in particular European. Imposed when Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, they were significantly tightened after the invasion began in February 2022. The EU, for example, has imposed nine rounds of sanctions on Russia since February 24. The measures have included hitting Russia’s main oil exports, cutting off its banks from the Swift global payment system and personally targeting President Vladimir Putin. Brussels is working on a tenth series of measures. All have just been extended for a period of six months. The European Commission is currently working on proposals for a tenth round of sanctions. But it is becoming more and more difficult to find an agreement between all member states, while Ukraine has called for sanctions against the Russian missile industry and the nuclear energy sector. The EU is also considering extending sanctions to Moscow’s ally, Belarus, used by the Kremlin as a relay for the Russian war effort against Ukraine.