Inflation continues to surprise: April CPI registers 1.4% and exceeds the 10% barrier in twelve months

Inflation does not let up and continues to put pressure on prices. In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4%, standing above market expectations

Thus, in the first four months of the year, it accumulates a rise of 4.8%, while in 12 months it rose to 10.5%, its highest level since August 1994 -27 and a half years ago-, when inflation in 12 months was 11.2%. It also far exceeds the tolerance ceiling of the Central Bank, which is 4%.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), in the fourth month of the year, ten of the twelve divisions that make up the CPI basket contributed positive effects in the monthly variation of the index, one presented a negative incidence and one registered no incidence. Among the divisions with price increases, food and non-alcoholic beverages stood out (2.3%) with 0.474 percentage points (pp.) and recreation and culture (2.9%) with 0.191pp.

The remaining divisions that had a positive influence contributed 0.733pp., as a whole. In turn, clothing and footwear recorded no variation in their prices (to one decimal), with a -0.001pp impact.

In detail, it is shown that the division of food and non-alcoholic beverages is the main cause of the higher prices. In the month it rose 2.3%, accumulating 10% in the year and 14.8% in twelve months. This division posted monthly increases in nine of its eleven classes. The most important was bread and cereals (3.0%) with a 0.131pp impact, while oils and fats (16.4%) contributed 0.096pp.

Of the 76 products that make up the division, 56 presented increases in their prices, the most relevant being vegetable oil (24.7%), with an incidence of 0.085pp., followed by bread (2.9%), with 0.069pp. . The remaining products with positive effects accumulated 0.382pp.

The second division was recreation and culture, which recorded monthly increases in ten of its 16 classes.. The most important was tourist packages (14.9%), which contributed 0.170pp., followed by recreation and sports services (1.8%), with 0.019pp. Thus, of the 37 products that make up the division, 20 recorded increases in their prices, highlighting tourist packages (14.9%), with an incidence of 0.170pp., followed by gyms (4.4%), with 0.021pp. The remaining products with positive contributions accumulated 0.044pp.

By products, tourist package appears again: in April it presented a monthly increase of 14.9%, contributing 0.170pp to the variation of the general indicator and accumulating a rise of 55.6% over twelve months.

The second place is occupied by gasoline, product that registered a monthly rise of 3.3%, with an impact of 0.100pp., and variations of 10.2% so far this year. In one year, the increase is 30.3%. And in third place, vegetable oil takes center stage. According to the INE, it registered a monthly rise of 24.7%, with 0.085pp., accumulating 40.1% so far this year and 62.0% twelve months later.

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