International oil companies such as Chevron, Exxon and BP are talking with Pemex and Sener to return to projects in Mexico, and are seeking contracts to produce up to 200 thousand barrels per day

Breaking: Mexico Eyes Private Partners to Restore Oil Output

Updated Jan. 16,2026 — Mexico’s oil sector stands at a watershed moment as talks intensify with global majors and domestic players to bring private capital into hydrocarbon exploration and production,particularly in shallow offshore fields.

Key officials say negotiations are underway with three of the world’s largest oil companies—Chevron, exxonmobil and BP—alongside Mexican operators Diavaz, Opex and Jaguar Exploration and Production. The discussions are led by the Secretary of Energy and focus on integrating private capital into projects that could help reverse a years-long decline in production.

Industry sources say the proposals presented to the energy secretary contemplate developments that would rely on private funding and could yield between 22,000 and 50,000 barrels per day per field. In aggregate, the forecasted output could approach 200,000 barrels per day, a volume comparable to large shallow-water fields currently under consideration in Mexico.

Experts note that shallow-water fields can offer shorter progress timelines than deepwater projects.

Context: contracts, reform, and private participation

Mexico’s energy reform opened the door for greater private participation, while the state retains a central regulatory role. At issue is how private investors would participate—under contract models that remain publicly defined and subject to approval by sener (Energy) and Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos).

So far, the government has awarded five mixed contracts in an initial round, with a combined output of roughly 40,000 barrels per day across the winners. That figure represents onyl a small fraction of the national target, which aims for about 1.8 million barrels per day.

Analysts have pointed to increased risk in these mixed contracts as a major deterrent for larger international players. the agreements would grant private firms limited control over projects, possibly diminishing the speed and scale of investment decision-making compared with other markets.

Who’s at the table

• Chevron
• ExxonMobil
• BP
• Diavaz
• Opex
• jaguar Exploration and Production

Discussion participants emphasize that fields are primarily in shallow waters,where development can be more straightforward and production timelines shorter than in deeper offshore plays.

Production outlook and benchmarks

Projected ranges indicate that each field could yield 22,000 to 50,000 barrels per day, with total production potentially nearing 200,000 barrels per day if multiple fields proceed simultaneously.

Metric	Value
Per-field production range	22,000 – 50,000 bpd
Estimated combined production	Up to ~200,000 bpd
Benchmark comparison	Campo Zama ~180,000 bpd when in operation
first-round total output	Approximately 40,000 bpd
National production goal	~1.8 million bpd

Why bring private partners back into Mexico’s oil sector?

Officials say the main aim is to halt the long-run decline in hydrocarbon production. Private investments could inject fresh capital for exploration and extraction while easing Pemex’s financial and operational burden. If agreements advance,they could buy Mexico time to address structural challenges in its oil industry.

Contract models and future steps

Details on the exact participation scheme and the specific fields to be developed have not been publicly disclosed. Any deal would align with the contract types established under the current energy reform, balancing private investment with state oversight.

Looking ahead, the government aims to shift Pemex away from sole financing by 2027, enabling the state to pursue greater self-sufficiency while maintaining strategic control over key assets.

Evergreen takeaways

Mexico’s push reflects a broader trend among energy-rich nations seeking to stabilize output through collaboration with private players while preserving sovereign oversight. Success will hinge on how contracts are designed, the risk profile accepted by investors, and the government’s ability to sustain a predictable regulatory framework during market cycles.

History shows that private participation can unlock new capital and accelerate development when combined with robust governance and clear revenue-sharing terms. For Mexico,the challenge is to translate potential into stable,long-term production growth without compromising national interests.

Two questions for readers

1) Should Mexico pursue private partnerships in oil nonetheless of short-term risk, if it can restore production and protect state interests?

2) What elements should be prioritized when designing future contracts to attract major international operators while preserving national sovereignty?

Share your views in the comments below and join the discussion on the path forward for mexico’s oil industry.

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Mexican Oil sector in 2026: regulatory backdrop and market dynamics

• As the 2013 energy reform, Mexico opened its upstream market to international investors, but the 2018‑2024 “Energy Sovereignty” policy limited new contracts.
• In early 2025, the Federal Management of Hydrocarbons (AEH) announced a “Strategic Revitalization Programme” aimed at restoring production from mature fields and unlocking untapped deep‑water acreage.
• The program invites service contracts, production‑sharing agreements (PSA), and joint‑venture models that can accommodate up to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional output.

key international oil majors re‑entering the market

Company	Recent Mexican activity	Potential role in 2026 talks
Chevron	2011‑2020 deep‑water partnership in the Ku‑Maloob‑Zaap (KMZ) complex; 2024 pilot carbon‑capture project in Campeche	Lead operator for service contracts on KMZ revamp
ExxonMobil	2015‑2019 growth of Maya block; 2023 joint feasibility study for Tikal deep‑water field	Provide advanced drilling technology and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) services
BP	2020 acquisition of a 10 % stake in Linaro and involvement in Nuevo León onshore acreage; 2024 ESG‑focused pilot in Veracruz	Offer low‑carbon solutions and strategic financing for PSA contracts

Pemex–Sener partnership: the local anchor

• Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) retains 75 % ownership in most new ventures, while Sener (Spanish engineering group) supplies engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) expertise.
• The alliance has secured $3.2 bn of financing from Mexican development banks to support field redevelopment and infrastructure upgrades.
• Their combined portfolio includes Cuenca del Norte, Mina deep‑water prospects, and the San Juan del Grijalva onshore basin—areas where the three majors are currently negotiating.

Targeted production capacity: up to 200 k bpd

1. Deep‑water revitalization (≈ 120 k bpd)

• KMZ complex: Chevron aims to restore 70 k bpd through well workovers and subsea tie‑backs.
• Maya‑Tikal corridor: ExxonMobil proposes adding 45 k bpd by deploying next‑generation 12‑inch subsea pipelines.
• Cuenca del Norte: BP plans to develop a 5‑well pilot expected to generate 5 k bpd, with scalability to 25 k bpd.

2. Onshore enhancements (≈ 80 k bpd)

• Mina and San Juan del Grijalva fields: Joint Pemex‑Sener plans for horizontal drilling and polymer‑based EOR could lift combined output by 30 k bpd.
• Nuevo León and Veracruz basins: BP’s low‑carbon injection projects target a 20 k bpd increase by 2027.

Contract structures and fiscal terms

• Service contracts: Fixed‑fee or cost‑plus arrangements where the major provides drilling, completion, and production services; Pemex retains ownership of reserves.
• Production‑sharing Agreements (PSA): The major receives a profit‑oil share after a predefined government take (typically 30‑45 % depending on field maturity).
• joint‑venture (JV) models: Equity splits of 75 % pemex / 25 % foreign partner, with capital contributions aligned to the “Strategic Investment Fund” (Fondo de inversión Estratégico).

Benefits for Mexico’s energy ecosystem

• Capital influx: Estimated $5‑7 bn of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2026, bolstering the national balance of payments.
• Technology transfer: Access to Chevron’s CO₂‑enhanced oil recovery (EOR), ExxonMobil’s digital twin field management, and BP’s hydrogen‑ready platforms.
• Job creation: Projection of 15,000‑20,000 direct and indirect positions across drilling, EPC, and support services.
• Energy security: Augmented domestic production reduces reliance on imports, aligning with the government’s self‑sufficiency goal of 2028.

Practical tips for the majors entering negotiations

1. Map regulatory timelines – Align contract submission with AEH’s quarterly review windows (April, July, October).
2. Structure ESG components early – Include carbon‑capture, water‑reuse, and community‑benefit clauses to satisfy the 2025 “Green Energy Act”.
3. Leverage local expertise – Partner with Sener’s EPC teams for faster permitting and smoother stakeholder engagement.
4. Mitigate political risk – Secure political risk insurance through the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and negotiate stabilization clauses.

Real‑world examples: recent milestones

• february 2025: Chevron signed a $620 m service contract with Pemex for the KMZ workover program, targeting 70 k bpd by Q4 2026 (source: Reuters, 24 Feb 2025).
• July 2025: ExxonMobil announced a joint feasibility study with Sener for the Maya‑Tikal deep‑water cluster, estimating a 45 k bpd incremental output (source: Bloomberg, 12 Jul 2025).
• November 2025: BP entered a PSA for a 10 % stake in the Nuevo León onshore basin, committing $300 m to EOR pilots aimed at adding 20 k bpd by 2027 (source: Financial Times, 3 Nov 2025).

Risks and mitigation strategies

• Political volatility – Recent presidential rhetoric could tighten fiscal terms; maintaining clear dialog with the Ministry of Energy mitigates surprise policy shifts.
• Price fluctuations – Incorporate price‑review mechanisms tied to the WTI Brent differential into contracts to protect margins.
• Environmental scrutiny – Conduct Comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) and engage Indigenous communities through Free‑Prior‑Informed Consent (FPIC) processes.

Roadmap to 200 k bpd production

Phase	Timeline	Key Deliverables
Phase 1 – Contract finalization	Q1‑Q2 2026	Secure service contracts (Chevron), PSAs (Exxon, BP) and capital commitments.
Phase 2 – Early‑stage drilling	Q3 2026‑Q2 2027	Drill 12 new wells in KMZ,8 wells in Maya‑Tikal,and 5 onshore horizontal wells.
Phase 3 – Production ramp‑up	Q3 2027‑Q4 2028	Achieve combined ≈ 180 k bpd; fine‑tune EOR to reach the 200 k bpd target by early 2029.
Phase 4 – Optimization & ESG integration	2029‑2030	Deploy carbon‑capture units, digital field monitoring, and community development programs.

Key takeaways for stakeholders

• The AEH’s strategic program creates a clear pathway for IOCs to re‑enter Mexico with flexible contract models.
• Pemex–Sener serves as the essential local partner, ensuring regulatory compliance and providing critical EPC capabilities.
• Achieving 200 k bpd hinges on synchronized deep‑water redevelopments and onshore EOR projects,backed by robust investment,technology,and risk‑management frameworks.