Pro-European parties will still hold 63% of the seats, according to an Ipsos poll for Euronews released on Tuesday, despite what appear to be far-right gains, the Greens and Liberals collapsing .
Based on the individual and data of the survey, the first party in Greece is predicted to be the New Democracy and in Cyprus the Democratic Alarm.
The exclusive survey – of nearly 26,000 people, in countries representing 96% of the EU’s population – is the first of its kind ahead of June’s European elections.
As Euronews notes, despite the turbulent five years that have passed, during which Europe has faced the pandemic, soaring prices and the war in Ukraine, Ipsos predicts remarkably little change in the fortunes of the EU’s two dominant political parties.
And it shows that centrists will continue to muster the majority needed to confirm officials and pass legislation. However, parties of the radical and Eurosceptic right could make significant gains as they top the polls in four of the EU’s six founding members.
The number of MEPs belonging to the center-right EPP and the Socialists is expected to change minimally from their current position, according to the survey.
In third place will come the weakened Renew Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition – while the rising radical right ID and Eurosceptic ECR groups will sink the Green party to sixth place, according to the poll.
One of the first main tasks of the next European Parliament will be to approve the person who will take over the presidency of the European Commission during the new term.
The results therefore signal good news for current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose EPP group appears to be on top, securing, according to the poll, 177 of the 720 MEPs.
He could then secure the majority he needs with the support of two other major pro-European parties, including the Socialists and either the Greens or the Liberals, according to the results.
With 30 extra seats predicted between ID and ECR, the far right will enjoy a boost – but that includes support in countries often seen as the most staunchly pro-European.
National Alarm, the French party led by Marine Le Pen, is forecast to win an additional ten seats and become the largest party in the European Parliament alongside Germany’s CDU/CSU.
Geert Wilders – the surprise winner of the November 2023 national election in the Netherlands – will occupy nine.
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is projected to take 24 of Italy’s 76 seats, while in Belgium, two right-wing parties, Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest) and NVA, will take three seats each. Germany’s AfD party is projected to have 15 MEPs, taking joint third place nationally.
Another possible change could concern the EU’s environmental policy, as the bloc aims to cut emissions by 55% by 2030.
Ipsos conducted a telephone and online survey of 25,916 people in 18 countries between 23 February and 5 March. These results were then reweighted to ensure representativeness and supplemented by research on the remaining, smaller nine EU members.
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