On March 24th, Iran claimed a U.S. Missile struck the premises of its Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, prompting renewed international concern over escalating attacks targeting nuclear facilities in the Middle East. While Tehran reported no damage to the reactor itself, the incident adds to a series of recent strikes and counter-strikes between Iran and its adversaries, raising fears of a wider conflict and potential radiological disaster.
The claim of a U.S. Strike followed an earlier Iranian assertion on March 17th that a projectile had impacted a structure approximately 1,000 feet from the Bushehr plant. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi labeled this the “reddest line of nuclear safety,” underscoring the gravity of the situation.
Just days prior, on March 21st, Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting two southern Israeli cities, including Dimona, located roughly eight miles from Israel’s Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. Iranian officials stated the attack was retaliation for prior U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility. This marked the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses near the Negev Nuclear Research Center, a site where Israel is widely believed to have developed nuclear weapons in the 1960s.
The escalating exchange of attacks has prompted alarm within the U.S. Congress. During a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on March 24th, Representative Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) questioned Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas G. DiNanno about the risks of nuclear escalation. Castro highlighted that Iran’s recent strikes demonstrated its capability to reach Israel’s sensitive nuclear sites, contradicting previous claims by the Trump administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran’s missile capabilities had been “destroyed.”
Castro pressed DiNanno on the administration’s assessment of the potential for nuclear escalation or a radiological disaster, and what steps were being taken to prevent it. DiNanno deferred to U.S. Central Command, stating that “operational questions would rest with” its commander, Admiral Charles Cooper. He added that the State Department’s Nonproliferation Bureau was prepared to offer resources if requested, and that he had discussed the issue with colleagues at the Department of Defense.
The hearing also revealed a long-standing U.S. Policy of “implausible deniability” regarding Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Castro repeatedly questioned DiNanno about Israel’s nuclear capabilities, receiving consistently evasive answers. DiNanno stated he was “not prepared to comment” on whether Israel possessed nuclear weapons, deferring any response to the Israeli government.
This policy dates back to an unwritten agreement reportedly reached in 1969 between President Richard Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir. Under the agreement, Israel would refrain from publicly acknowledging its nuclear arsenal or conducting tests, while the U.S. Would not pressure Israel to relinquish its weapons or join the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The U.S. Government also adopted a policy of maintaining the secrecy of Israel’s nuclear status.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated in 2023 that Israel possesses approximately 90 nuclear warheads, though some estimates range as high as 200, deployed on ballistic and cruise missiles. Despite the official U.S. Policy of silence, reports of Israel’s nuclear capabilities have appeared in both American and Israeli media. In 2002, The Washington Post reported on Israel’s acquisition of diesel submarines equipped with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The Times of Israel reported in 2016, using the standard attribution “according to foreign reports,” that these submarines were capable of delivering a nuclear payload.
On March 29th, Israeli forces reportedly struck the Shahid Khondab Heavy Water Complex in Arak, a key Iranian facility for plutonium production, and a uranium processing facility in Yazd. Iranian officials have not reported any radiation leaks from these attacks. Al Jazeera reported from Tehran that these strikes could prompt Iran to again target Israeli nuclear sites, as it did on March 21st.
IAEA Director General Grossi has repeatedly called for “military restraint to avoid any risk of a nuclear accident” as tensions continue to rise. The U.S. State Department has not publicly responded to Representative Castro’s questions regarding the risk of nuclear escalation or the specifics of Israel’s nuclear capabilities.
