A drone flies over kyiv on October 17, 2022 (AFP/Sergei SUPINSKY)
The use by the Russians of Iranian drones in Ukraine, like those which struck kyiv on Monday morning, demonstrates two things: the growing role of Tehran in this activity and certain shortcomings in the Russian drone industry.
Iran delivered hundreds of drones to Russia this summer, according to the White House, and they are regularly used, again on Monday against kyiv.
WHAT DRONES FOR WHAT?
Two models have been identified with different uses.
“The Shahed 136 is a fairly large suicide drone, of low cost construction. It reaches its target by GPS coordinates, entered before takeoff. It then evolves autonomously, flying quite low and hitting a target which is necessarily fixed a few hundred kilometers”, explains Pierre Grasser, French researcher associated with the Sirice center in Paris.
It is this model that Russia is raining down on Ukraine.
But also “the Mohajer-6, which has a similar function and size to the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2”, explains Vikram Mittal, professor at the American military academy at West Point.
The Mohajer-6 “are the Russian response to Ukraine’s TB-2”, the famous MALE (medium altitude, long endurance) armed drone supplied by Turkey and which also distinguished itself in the hands of Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia in 2020, recalls Jean-Christophe Noël, French researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
WHAT EFFICIENCY?
“Like all armed drones or prowling ammunition, they are very effective when the adversary does not have the means to protect themselves or retaliate”, underlines Mr. Noël.
“A lot of their initial success will come from the fact that it is a new weapon in this theater. The Ukrainians will capture them, dissect them and develop anti-drone systems. Before that, they will be effective,” said Mr. Mittal.
Iranian combat drone (AFP/)
Until then, the Ukrainians can try to shoot them down with portable anti-aircraft systems during the day, or batteries equipped with radar at night. They can also try – but the maneuver is not easy – to jam the GPS signal to interfere with the Shahed 136s, which are not equipped to continue towards their target in this situation.
The Ukrainians claim to have shot down dozens of Iranian drones in recent weeks.
Regarding these suicide drones, “their use is a measure of economy for Russia, because it spares precious cruise missiles, which cost 1.5 to 2 million” US dollars each, recalls Mr. Grasser.
Their “main defect is that they can only hit fixed targets”, he points out. “This poses little threat to deployed troops. This arrival of drones should therefore not change the course of the battle.”
IS IT A RUSSIAN BANKRUPTCY?
Why would Russia, one of the main arms producers in the world, buy from Iran?
“The (Russian) Ministry of Defense has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for drones. And most (Russian) manufacturers, unfortunately, are not able to meet them,” Russian Colonel Igor Ichchuk said recently. , quoted by the TASS agency.
Pierre Grasser, for his part, evokes a weakness in the Russian industrial structure. “The STC, which manufactures Orlan (reconnaissance) drones, has announced that it will switch to 3-8 to operate 24 hours a day. They are unable to form the teams. As on the front line, the problem of Russia, it’s the human resource”, he explains.
A resident in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian drone strike launched by Russian forces southwest of kyiv on October 5, 2022. (AFP / Sergei SUPINSKY)
Beyond this difficulty, Russia had not planned in its arsenal long-range suicide drones like the Shahed 136, but had “models with reduced autonomy (40 km maximum)”, he adds.
As for the MALE armed drones, “the fact of receiving Iranian Mohajer-6s is also an admission of industrial failure”, specifies the researcher. “They are supposed to have materials in this range (…). This means that (Russian industry) cannot keep up.”
“Western sanctions have caused problems, like Covid, which has disrupted global supply chains,” Mittal said.
The Russians “no longer have access to Western technological components and their attempts to develop this type of device in series have been unsuccessful”, explains Mr. Noël.
Even if they implement workarounds. For example, have a Russian diplomat buy navigation systems anywhere in the world in an aeromodelling store. “The parts will then be sent to Russia by the diplomatic pouch,” explains Mr. Grasser.
IRAN, ANKARA’S RIVAL ON THE MARKET?
“There is undoubtedly a form of race between Iran and Turkey on the segment of the cheap drones to extend their sphere of influence”, estimates Mr. Mittal.
Iranian Shahed-136 drones at an unspecified location on August 24, 2022. ( IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY / – )
“The top of the market is occupied by the United States and Israel”, recalls Mariane Renaux, aeronautics and drones expert. “Turkish drones are below, but are more reliable than Iranian drones which seem to lack high accuracy.”
“Iran already has customers for these drones in the Middle East” with its allies, from Yemen to Lebanon via Iraq, recalls Mr. Noël. “But the American sanctions against potential customers very strongly limit the number of candidates who would like to equip themselves with such equipment”.