In November 1960, the journal Science published a provocative, mathematically derived prophecy: humanity was hurtling toward a “doomsday” on Friday.
Using data spanning from 400 B.C. to 1958, the researchers constructed a hyperbolic equation that predicted the world population would hit a singularity—an infinite value—by the end of 2026. Von Foerster even noted in a New York Times interview that the date happened to fall on a Friday the 13th, a date he reportedly found fitting for such an ominous prediction.
History, however, has moved in the opposite direction. Rather than accelerating toward an infinite singularity, global population growth has slowed significantly. Today, more than 60 nations, including South Korea, China, and Japan, face declining birth rates. While the 1960 model predicted a world population of 11 billion by 2010, the actual figure was roughly 7 billion. As of this year, the global population sits at approximately 8.3 billion, far from the predicted explosion.
By failing to account for shifting environmental and social conditions, the team mistook an exceptional historical period for a permanent trajectory.
Some industry figures, such as former Anthropic researcher Jacob Steinhardt, have publicly suggested that unchecked AI could lead to human extinction within a decade, a sentiment echoed by current Anthropic researcher Evan Hubinger, who estimated a 10% probability of such an outcome.
Warnings about AI are no longer confined to speculative social media posts. The Lancet Commission on 21st-century health threats recently identified AI and nuclear war as the two primary drivers of potential human extinction by 2100. The commission specifically cited the risk of AI systems developing biological weapons.
According to reports from Axios, executives at major AI firms, including Anthropic and OpenAI, are privately reviewing scenarios that involve severe AI-related accidents and the subsequent political and public backlash. These companies are increasingly dedicating significant portions of their filings—sometimes nearly 100 pages—to explaining potential global risks.
Sociologist Helga Nowotny, chair of the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, is hosting an academic conference on November 13 to examine the meaning and fiction of doomsday predictions. Nowotny said that the current climate of AI-related fear makes the 66-year-old population study an essential case study for understanding how we model the future.
The upcoming academic meeting in Vienna will serve as a venue to re-evaluate whether the logic behind the 1960 “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” paper offers a cautionary mirror for the current era of artificial intelligence.
