2023-04-30 13:00:42
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[EN VIDÉO] Interview: how was artificial intelligence born? Artificial intelligence aims to mimic the functioning of the human brain, or at least its logic…
« We have our press releases written by ChatGPT », « I have colleagues lawyerslawyers who use ChatGPTChatGPT to write letters », « We found ChatGPT to do as good a job as our editors »…
These are all real phrases that the author of this article has heard from members of various professions: broker, lawyer, public relations agency executive… It didn’t take long for the concerned realize that this artificial intelligence could take over some administrative tasks and that this could result in a beneficial reduction — to their eyeseyes — they budget.
In fact, this concern has become intense. It’s become difficult to talk to someone about ChatGPT and the like without them sooner or later bringing up a burning question: ” Will ChatGPT put me out of work? ? »
25% of potentially replaceable jobs
At the beginning of April 2023, a study by Goldman Sachs published the results of a study and it did nothing to allay the fears mentioned above. This investment bank wanted to analyze the large-scale impact ofapplicationsapplications such as ChatGPT. One of its conclusions is certainly positive: AI tools should lead to a 7% increase in global wealth, thanks to the productivity gains they induce. Only here… At the same time, these same tools would be able to handle a quarter of the workload, in continents such as the United States or Europe!
Another study, conducted by Pew Research Center among 11,000 American adults in December 2022, revealed that 32% are worried about the impact of AI on their job and on the search for jobs in the perspective of the 20 years to come — however, it should be noted that 40% believe that the arrival of AI will be beneficial.
A study by the University of Pennsylvania and Open Research is more precise as to the real impacts: ” 80% of the workforce could see at least 10% of their tasks affected. And 19% would see at least 50% of their tasks affected by the introduction of tools such as ChatGPT ».
What professions are at risk?
Various studies draw up lists of professions that could be impacted by the advent of AI. In the lot, there are certain activities that would have been thought more sheltered:
- tax data processing;
- the development of computer applications;
- the activities of law clerks;
- accountability ;
- market analysis;
- graphic design;
- many activities related to the writing (product sheets, announcement of apartment for sale…);
- customer support by telephone;
- the activity of translator or interpreter, particularly in highly specialized fields;
- etc.
Of course, when people are questioned, they usually defend their territory. For example, computer code developers point out a point: someone who is not of the seraglio will not know what exactly to do with the sequences of instructions PythonPython or Javascript produced by ChatGPT.
In the legal sector, some point out that searching for documents is a long and tedious task that AI could do remarkably well, but that good advocacy remains an art in itself. The same is true for writing response messages in a real estate agency, which should leave more time for the negotiation itself. Clearly: activities requiring expertise or talent would be spared and some even want to see this as an opportunity for better remuneration, artificial intelligence being able to rid them of tedious tasks and promote better productivity.
What about journalists? Those whose activity depends heavily on “field” activity (survey, interviews, etc.) should remain irreplaceable. However, scribes assigned to the simple rewriting of agency dispatches may have cause for concern.
In short, the jobs destined to disappear would primarily concern assistant tasks, in particular the drafting of extremely standardized documents. Let’s admit. But, if tomorrow, such tedious jobs are taken over by ChatGPT emulators, what alternatives will be offered to interested parties?
New jobs on the horizon?
Some point out that history is a long series of technological revolutions that have seen jobs disappear to encourage the appearance of others.
At the beginning of the XIXe century, the Jacquard loom favored the production of massemasse of clothing and impacted the tailoring profession. However, a large number of retail businesses have appeared as a result. Similarly, in 1908, when Henry Ford set up the Model T assembly lines to promote mass production, he democratized theautomobileautomobile and spawned the appearance of service stations and car dealerships.
Let’s assume that the same evolution occurs. It remains that it is difficult to see what these famous new activities will be because, unlike the Web which has replaced part of the sales activity in stores by online commerce, AI tends to eliminate tasks without really opening up new opportunities.
Bill Gates in favor of a tax on robots
From 2018, Bill GatesBill Gatesthe founder of software publishing MicrosoftMicrosoft Gates has come out in favor of a tax that would make robot producers have to compensate for any job that is replaced by an AI. Such a tax would have the effect of maintaining the salary and paying for the training of the person concerned, during the transition period. It would also be possible to envisage a 4-day working week accompanied by a day dedicated to continuing education in sectors expressing strong demand.
Already, the European Union is working on a framework for AI and such options could very well be included in the catalog of measures adopted by the reflection team led by MEPs Dragoș Tudorache and Brando Benifei.
It turns out Bill Gates wants to be alarmist on the issue. According to the man who has long been praised for his visionary qualities: “ New programs like ChatGPT will make many office jobs more efficient by helping to draft invoices or letters. It will change our world. The demand for many skills is set to decline substantially. I don’t think people are aware of that. The disruption of the job market due to AI will be massive and we must prepare for it. » (Excerpt from an article published in Handelsblatt)
Which professions should not suffer from the arrival of AI?
In the more or less long term, professions that are highly dependent on human presence should be protected. Among them :
- Crafts;
- The negociation ;
- home care;
- Logistics – even if this activity could be threatened in the long term by the arrival the rise of autonomous vehiclesautonomous vehicles ;
- Theater ;
- Singers and groups with a strong scenic impact;
- Restaurant owners and chefs;
- Plumbing ;
- Maintaining order;
- etc.
ChatGPT and other AIs could thus lead to a renewed interest in these professions involving a significant amount of manual work, creativity or personal skill. In the meantime, it is urgent that lawmakers consider the question of compensation for lost jobs, which will be financed by the giants of artificial intelligence…
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