After the Russian-Ukrainian war finally ends, a new geopolitical crisis may break out. Both Finland and Sweden have submitted applications to join NATO. If both Finland and Sweden join NATO, the Baltic Sea will almost become a NATO inland sea, giving Russia only one St. Petersburg and one “enclave” Kaliningrad with two “exports”. ”, and there is no guarantee of safety.
“As for the eastward expansion (of NATO) to include two new members, Finland and Sweden, I would like to inform you, dear colleagues, that there is no problem between Russia and these two countries.” Russian President Vla Kimir Putin (Vladimir Putin) said this at the “Collective Security Treaty Organization” leaders summit on the 16th local time.
Earlier, when the Russian army sent troops to Ukraine, Putin said that he asked NATO’s military deployment to return to before 1997. Ukraine wants to join NATO, but the Russian army has launched a “special military operation” and the operation has not ended yet.
The Chinese media “Xinmin Weekly” analyzed today (18) that if Russia’s previous attitude is followed, shouldn’t it strongly oppose the practices of Finland and Sweden? Shouldn’t troops be sent into Sweden and Finland as a “special military operation”? It is intriguing why Putin suddenly softened his attitude.
“Xinmin Weekly” said that the current situation is such that Putin may have to hold back his anger. How many troops does the Russian army have to fight in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden at the same time? Before the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, how can Russia open up a new battlefield? Looking at European history, opening up two battlefields at the same time will be an irreversible consequence. Putin should understand in his heart, and because of this, Putin Soften your attitude.
Russian Iskander tactical ballistic missiles.Figure: Reprinted from Xinmin Weekly
Since then, the British “Sun” reported that the Russian side has transported the Iskander tactical ballistic missile to the Russian-Finnish border. The “Sun” also specifically stated that the missile with a range of 500 kilometers can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. On the evening of the 16th local time, the Western Military Region of Russia made a special statement on this. Russia did not transport weapons and equipment to the direction of Vyborg on the Russian-Finnish border as claimed by The Sun.
Sweden and Finland have both had wars with Russia in history. In the case of long-term “neutrality”, these two countries are still considered to be Western countries, or part of the Western camp. Although they have not been members of NATO, But they are all members of the European Union, which is different from Ukraine.
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus all originated in Kyiv in history. During the Soviet Union, they were all major members of the “League of Nations”. And this time Ukraine and Russia have developed to such a situation that many places in the territory are demolishing or preparing to demolish monuments and sculptures that symbolize the friendship between Russia and Ukraine.
On the 16th, the Summit of the Leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization was held in Moscow.Figure: Reprinted from Xinmin Weekly
When Putin talked about the accession of Finland and Sweden at the Collective Security Treaty Organization leaders summit, Putin said that the act of these countries joining NATO is not a direct threat to Russia, but if the NATO military infrastructure continues to expand as a result, Putin said. , which will definitely lead to a necessary response from the Russian side.
“Xinmin Weekly” analyzed that Putin’s remarks are equivalent to leaving a way out for Sweden, Finland and himself. It means that even if these two Nordic countries join NATO, they must remember not to place NATO’s big killer in their own territory, otherwise Russia will definitely respond.
In fact, Sweden and Finland have already participated in a series of military exercises organized by NATO in the past few years. In particular, Finland has ordered advanced weapons such as US-made F-35 aircraft. The difference between Sweden and Finland in military operations and the Nordic countries is that they did not introduce offensive weapons into their countries.
It depends on what the United States wants to push Russia into. Even if Putin softened his attitude and Russia denied that the Iskander missiles were shipped to the Finnish border, NATO’s large-scale military exercise in Estonia started on the 16th as scheduled. The exercise site is only more than 60 kilometers away from the Russian border. for several weeks.
Among the 14 countries participating in the exercise, there are not only NATO members, but also NATO partner countries such as Finland, Sweden, Georgia and Ukraine, with a total scale of about 15,000 people. The Odd will take part in the exercise.
Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kirsachi.Figure: Reprinted from Xinmin Weekly
Around Russia, another NATO military exercise is about to be held in Lithuania, with 3,000 NATO soldiers and 1,000 pieces of military equipment participating. In June, NATO will also launch larger-scale military exercises in the Baltic countries and Poland, with the participation of troops from 23 countries.
In response to such pressure, the Russian side is likely to unite with other countries within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO Treaty, which will form a well-defined group confrontation on the European continent.
The problem is that NATO has been expanding since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, etc., is nothing more than a defensive small-scale military organization that is much smaller than the Warsaw Pact Organization of that year. Can the Collective Security Treaty Organization survive NATO? Is it possible to form a community that can compete with the West in military, economic, cultural and other fields?
Although Finland and Sweden announced on the 15th and 16th that they would join NATO, Turkish President Erduan once again stated on the 16th that Turkey would not allow these two countries to join NATO.
Turkey, a NATO country but not yet an EU country, is very dissatisfied with Sweden and Finland allowing the PKK, which is regarded as a terrorist organization in Turkey, to enter the parliament.
It should be noted that after Turkey expressed its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, it was criticized by the United States. But now, the Turkish President personally went out and re-emphasized Turkey’s proposition, “We will not agree to those countries that impose sanctions on Turkey to join NATO.” Erduan’s remarks were made after talks with visiting Algerian President Teben. The press conference said that it was a very formal occasion.
There have been many wars between Turkey and Russia in history. Even in recent years, when the Russian army sent troops to Syria in 2015, it was ambushed by the Turkish army. The Turkish army dispatched an F-16 to shoot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet, and two Russian pilots were killed. Putin at that time was very He said with grief and indignation: “The Russian army was fighting terrorists, and someone stabbed a knife in the back”, but at that time, Russia held back and did not get along with Turkey. On the contrary, when Erduan was in danger of a coup d’etat, he handed in information, and the grateful Erduan became Putin’s little brother.
“Xinmin Weekly” said that now Putin seems to be really cowardly or fake, and the subtleties of various changes in international politics have to be carefully observed. In NATO, besides Turkey, who else can negotiate with Russia? If Sweden and Finland can really enter NATO this time, what will happen to them after entering NATO? It is difficult to predict whether a new geopolitical crisis will break out after the final settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
After the Russian-Ukrainian war finally ends, a new geopolitical crisis may break out. Both Finland and Sweden have decided to join NATO. If both Finland and Sweden join NATO, the Baltic Sea will almost become NATO’s inland sea, giving Russia only one St. Petersburg and one “enclave” Kaliningrad with two “exports”.
Schematic diagram of the situation around the Baltic Sea.Figure: Reprinted from Xinmin Weekly