2024-03-19 23:27:32
The fiscal budget announced the withdrawal of spicy food to activate the real estate market, which is like opening a “humane corridor” in the real estate market for developers who are holding heavy stocks and owners who are eager to sell their properties and immigrate, providing opportunities for shipments. However, in recent days, there has been a “volume increase but a decrease in price” in transactions. The signal indicates that the market has limited appetite for supply. How long will this property market escape door last?
Volume rises but prices fall, is the escape door of the property market slowly closing? (PETER PARKS/AFP via Getty Images) (PETER PARKS via Getty Images)
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The removal of spicy food has encouraged developers and property owners to take the opportunity to “escape”
The property market has been completely withdrawn. When buying a second unit or buying a property for non-Hong Kong residents, the stamp duty is reduced from 15% of the property price to a minimum of HK$100. In addition, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cancels the stress test, which greatly lowers the market entry threshold. Buyers can always save money. Millions of tax dollars can be used to purchase a larger unit. Major developers took advantage of the improving market sentiment to rush out. Over the past two weekends, more than 300 first-hand transactions were completed. The transaction volume in only one weekend exceeded the transactions in the entire month of February. The second-hand market is also hot, and owners’ sentiments are even more evident. Hong Kong immediately counter-priced. For example, in the first week of the withdrawal, an owner of a four-bedroom unit in Erluan in Yuen Long counter-priced for NT$1 million. Many owners of other large housing estates such as Sha Tin City One and Taikoo Shing counter-priced for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Ambitious property owners are optimistic about the market outlook and simply close the market without selling. This allows property owners who have entered the market at a high level in the past two years to take advantage of this wave of property price rebound to gain the opportunity of “losing less but winning instead”.
Trading volume rises but price falls
The real estate market is experiencing an Indian Summer, which is hailed as the most prosperous time in three years. However, “increasing volume” may not necessarily lead to “increasing prices.” Especially under the competition in the first-hand market, the second-hand market has instead experienced “serial failures” of counter-prices by owners. Earlier, An owner of Golden Lion Garden in Sha Tin reduced the price of his unit from NT$4.25 million to NT$3.5 million for sale. He thought that the price of the property would skyrocket immediately after the hot sale was withdrawn, so he offered a counter-price of NT$180,000 to NT$3.68 million. However, the reality was that there was no one in the market to take it, and the owner finally We can only face reality and sell it at a lower price of NT$3.45 million than before the withdrawal of the hot spot. Another two-bedroom unit in the Weihua Center in the same district was sold for NT$6 million last year, but no one was interested. Therefore, before the hot spot was withdrawn, the asking price was lowered to 5.1 million yuan. After the budget was announced, the price was counter-priced to about 5.3 million yuan. In the end, it could only be sold for 5 million yuan. The cumulative loss was 1 million yuan after being put on the market for 7 months. After holding the stock for four years, it lost 1.12 million yuan, depreciating 18%.
First-hand new projects compete for corresponding markets
The second-hand market is weak, but the first-hand developers are full of confidence. Wheelock Wong even stated clearly that after the withdrawal of the hot sale, it may “not need to offer very favorable payment plans” to attract buyers. However, the reality is that developers who hold heavy stocks are seizing the opportunity to arrive and are eager to leave. The warehouse is full of food. Among them, the new Ngau Tau Kok project “Tai Feng”, which is the focus of the market, went on sale last weekend. 336 units were sold. The average price per square foot of urban buildings is only 15,000 yuan, and it cannot be cleared in one quarter. The agent claimed The invoice was RMB 6,000, but only 255 units were sold in one weekend; the developer once revealed that the project development cost was nearly 10 billion yuan. If calculated based on the floor area of 520,000 square feet, the cost per square foot would be as high as 19,200 yuan. The market speculated that the development Businessmen would rather “lose, live and sell” than have long nights and many dreams. In addition, in the past, developers had a tacit understanding of “orderly promotion” and rarely competed with each other for customers. However, Wheelock announced the launch of “𠝹ticket” at LOHAS Park Seasons Place when it suddenly launched sales in Tai Feng. , the first batch of 130 units has a discounted average price per square foot of NT$14,000. It has been hailed by agents in the area as a six-year low in Lois Park Station. It is similar to the new projects of the same series in Marini and Montara in 2019, and even higher than last year in the same area as Kaibai Peak. III is 16% lower, which shows that developers are afraid to be too aggressive in pricing in order to sell goods.
Seasons Place is about to hit the market, making LOHAS Park a major battlefield in the property market. (PETER PARKS/AFP via Getty Images) (PETER PARKS via Getty Images)
Executives and Hong Kong drifters would rather go north
The Centaline City Leading Index continued to fall, with the latest reading at 143.02 points, down another 0.81% on the week. This number can only reflect the market conditions before the budget, and it cannot fully reflect the impact after the withdrawal of spicy food. However, the index has hit a new low in more than seven years. It has returned to the level in October 2016, down 25.25% from the historical high of 191.34 points in August 2021, and has fallen 2.85% since 2024.
As for whether there is an opportunity for property prices to recover, there are a few points worth observing in the market outlook. First, the attitude of banks. Some banks were once unwilling to provide mortgages to buyers who were ready to buy properties, as well as buyers who wanted to buy the goods. This frightened those who wanted to enter the market. home; in addition, the government’s push to promote the one-hour living circle in the Greater Bay Area has achieved great results. In addition to attracting Shengdou residents to go north for consumption, many retail stores and restaurants have closed down. Now, even high-income senior business managers have also joined the army to go north, KPMG The “Hong Kong Executive Salary Outlook for 2024” report was released earlier, indicating that more than 70% of executives hope to develop in the Greater Bay Area, mainly because they are optimistic about the technology industry: In addition, there are also Hong Kong drifters who have decided to live in Hong Kong after four years. I moved back to Shenzhen and rented a two-bedroom apartment near Futian Port for RMB 8,000. It was much more comfortable than renting a one-room apartment in Hong Kong for RMB 15,000. I would rather work in both China and Hong Kong in the future. Looking at the current properties along the Shenzhen subway, a two-bedroom unit of more than 500 square feet can be rented for as little as three to four thousand yuan, and a good-quality four-bedroom house of 1,000 square feet can be rented for as little as ten thousand yuan. For those who like to go north on weekends, you can It is an attractive option for Hong Kong people who can work from home most of the time, but it will directly impact the medium and long-term demand for Hong Kong properties.
A Hong Kong drifter said that she had had unpleasant experiences renting apartments in Hong Kong four times, and finally moved back to rent a two-bedroom apartment in Shenzhen for 8,000 yuan. (Hey Li@Xiaohongshu)
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