“I think these elections are the most important of all the ones I’ve known,” Ruth Epstein, an 81-year-old longtime left-wing voter in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, said on Tuesday as Israel’s latest parliamentary vote concluded in an apparent deadlock.
Exit polls from Tuesday’s election show neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot on track for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The stalemate could keep Netanyahu in a caretaker role.
How the Projected Numbers Stack Up in the Knesset
Projections broadcast across major networks—including Channel 12, Channel 13, and the public broadcaster Kan—place Netanyahu’s Likud party as the largest single party in the Knesset, with 24 to 25 seats. Yet, the broader mathematical reality offers no clear path to a governing coalition. Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party is projected to secure 21 to 23 seats, anchoring an anti-Netanyahu bloc that holds a narrow edge over the right-wing religious camp supporting the prime minister.
Across the three major polls, the anti-Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 52 to 53 seats. Meanwhile, parties supporting Netanyahu are projected at around 50 seats. Arab-led parties, which oppose Netanyahu but are not part of the Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc, are projected to win 17 to 18 seats. Because both major camps fall short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, the projections point toward prolonged coalition negotiations or another election, echoing the period from 2019 to 2022.
The Security Credential and the Shadow of October 7
For Eisenkot, a 66-year-old hawkish former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, the campaign centered on security credentials coupled with a centrist domestic platform. Entering politics four years ago, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet after the Hamas attack before resigning eight months later, criticising the prime minister’s leadership.
The election turned on accountability for the security failures of Oct 7. Opposition groups have promised a national inquiry, which Netanyahu has resisted. Eager to counter high turnout among his opponents on the left and Arab Israelis, Netanyahu made a final push on election day. “You all need to stream to the polls,” he said. “This is a fateful moment.” Netanyahu also campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran, who has said they should “finish the job”.
What Lies Ahead for the Israeli Government
With the Central Elections Committee having begun counting votes, official tallies are expected through the night. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot could seek the first opportunity to form a government by appealing to President Isaac Herzog. Netanyahu leads the largest individual party, while Eisenkot heads the bloc projected to win more seats overall.
Neither advantage guarantees the support needed to secure a parliamentary majority. If neither side can secure sufficient backing, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister while political leaders attempt to resolve the impasse.
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